Oct. 20, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

 

Yet Another Poll Shows Democrats Trailing Republicans Among 2024 Voters In 2026 Midterms As Shutdown Grinds On

By Robert Romano

Republicans continue to lead Democrats in the 2026 midterms’ generic Congressional ballot poll by Emerson College taken Oct. 13 to Oct. 14 among 2024 voters — that is, those people who actually voted in 2024 either for President Donald Trump or former Vice President Kamala Harris — this time 46.9 percent for the GOP to 45.8 percent for Democrats. 

It’s the second Emerson College poll in a row to show this exact phenomenon, that Democrats are currently leading lower propensity voters in October, this time 34 percent to 21 percent, but it comes with a wrinkle, where a whopping 45 percent of those who did not vote in 2024 are undecided and therefore up for grabs. 

This as the Democratic Party-led government shutdown winds on into 20 days. Not that it seems to be having any effect politically — for now. 

The other Emerson poll on this question taken Aug. 25 to Aug. 26, had among 2024 voters 46.4 percent for the Republican candidate to 44.9 percent for the Democratic candidate and 8.6 percent undecided. 

In August, those who did not vote favored the Democratic generic candidate over the Republican 33 percent to 22 percent, with 45 percent undecided. 

Democrats improved (0.9 percent) slightly more than Republicans (0.5 percent) since August, but still trail among those who voted in 2024. There’s a little movement, but not a lot.

All of which largely mirrored the New York Times-Sienna poll taken Sept. 22 to Sept. 27, with 47.4 percent of 2024 voters supporting the Republican candidate and 46.2 percent supporting the Democratic candidate with 6.3 percent saying they were undecided or did not know. 

In the New York Times poll, though, it is worth noting that those who did not vote chose the Democratic candidate 52 percent to the Republican at 30 percent and only 18 percent undecided.

So, there’s some question about how those who did not vote’s preferences. Both Emerson and New York Times are using registered voters, both show Republicans leading among 2024 voters, both show Democrats leading among those who did not vote, while both disagree about the extent of Democratic enthusiasm among those who did not vote. 

This in turn is causing some Democrats to think that focusing on did not vote in 2024ers is a good idea but there’s one glaring risk: 41 percent don’t know who they’re voting for. Now obviously the reason for that is they are low propensity voters but the lack of enthusiasm even among the bottom rung of people likely to vote should be cause for concern.

Ultimately, when it comes to turning out the vote, Republicans could have an easier go at it, as presidential election voters would be far more likely to vote in the Congressional midterms, a lower turnout affair, than first-time voters. 

What it all means is the 2026 Congressional midterms could be much closer than usual should the pattern hold over time. Early polls might be more accurate, too. For example, in 2024, early polls showed President Trump ahead in the popular vote over former President Joe Biden before Biden dropped out of the race. 

And what these early polls show is that Democrats are weak and vulnerable headed into the midterms, and now they are resorting to a desperation tactic: A government shutdown combined with radical No Kings rallies nationwide. Given Democrats the benefit of the doubt, leaders say the shutdown is about health care. 

But if you look at the top issues among voters in the Emerson poll, health care ranks lower at 9.4 percent than the economy and inflation at 31 percent, threats to democracy at 21 percent and immigration at 12.9 percent. Crime comes in at 7.6 percent.

Among those who did not vote, the top issue is still the economy and inflation at 22.5 percent, followed by immigration at 20.3 percent and housing affordability at 19.2 percent. Health care is a distant fourth place among non-voters at 11.9 percent. Interestingly, crime comes in at 10.5 percent among non-voters, above that of the general population.

Age seems to be a significant factor in delineating the importance of issues, with younger voters the most likely to say the economy and inflation are the biggest issues and older voters to say immigration. Both the very old and the very young are twice as likely to say crime. Housing affordability is almost squarely on 30-39-year-olds — that’s to be expected as that is prime home-buying age — so that should give a pretty high degree of confidence.

The low numbers for health care as an issue likely have to do with demographics, where about 165 million Americans use employer-sponsored health coverage compared to just 24 million who are using the Obamacare exchanges. Another 70 million use Medicaid. 69 million use Medicare and of those around 12 million to 13 million use Medicaid, creating some overlap.

Therefore, only about 8 percent of Americans with health insurance use the Obamacare exchanges and Democrats shut down the government for them by trying to extend Covid-era expanded premium tax credits from 2021 and 2022. It’s a very narrow constituency, and it is unclear how focusing on just them to the exclusion of all others in the context of the shutdown helps them in 2026. That’s the gamble. 

The truth is, not much has changed among 2024 voters and with 2026 just a stone’s throw away — just a year to go — and Democrats are maintaining narrowing lead in the generic ballot, just 1.6 points as of this writing in the national average. It’s day 20 of the Democrat-led shutdown? How’s it working out?

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/10/yet-another-poll-shows-democrats-trailing-republicans-among-2024-voters-in-2026-midterms-as-shutdown-grinds-on/