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MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DNC Chair Ken Martin
DATE: Monday, October 20, 2025
RE: Democrats Are Overperforming in Key Elections in Warning Sign for GOP
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Democrats enter the final sprint to critical elections in New Jersey, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and California in pole position. Elections across the country in 2025 paint one clear picture: Voters are rejecting Trump’s Republican Party, and Democrats are overperforming and winning across the map, in red, purple, and blue states.
The DNC is investing record amounts for an off-year cycle to take advantage of and build on this trend.
Our Strategy is Working
Throughout the year, the DNC has made historic financial investments or orchestrated organizing efforts in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, California, Ohio, Missouri, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, Nebraska, Florida, Alabama, Texas and New York.
These efforts are leading to a surge in Democratic overperformance. From state legislative races in Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, to special Congressional elections like Rep.-Elect Grijalva’s resounding win in Arizona’s 7th Congressional District or John Ewing Jr.’s victory in the Omaha Mayoral race,
Democrats have won or overperformed the top of the 2024 ticket in 45 out of 46 (98%) key elections this year — by a whopping 15 points on average in special elections. This exceeds our overperformance and win rate in 2017, ahead of the blue wave year in 2018 when Democrats retook the House of Representatives, by over ten points.
By the numbers:
* In 2025 so far, Democrats or Democratically-aligned candidates have won a total of 1,146 partisan seats and 459 non-partisan seats.
* Democrats have won 132 mayoral races (and comparable executive offices in cities and townships) across the country in 2025 alone.
* Democrats have won nearly two-thirds of the congressional and state legislative special elections so far this year.
* And Democrats have vastly overperformed the top of the 2024 ticket in special elections this year in areas where we didn’t win last cycle.
Our Message is Breaking Through
Democratic candidates up and down the ballot have effectively focused on affordability while painting their opponents as too extreme and too closely aligned with Donald Trump. When voters hear about Donald Trump and Republicans’ massive cuts to Medicaid to pay for permanent tax handouts to billionaires, Trump’s erratic trade policies that are skyrocketing costs and devastating small businesses and farm communities, and Republicans causing and then refusing to stop health care premiums from
doubling ([link removed]) next year for 22 million Americans, they put their trust in Democrats who are fighting to save health care and lower costs.
Below is a list of some of Democrats’ major wins and overperformances in 2025:
Arizona
* In Arizona’s 7th Congressional District special election, Democrat Adelita Grijalva resoundingly beat her Trump-backed opponent by a whopping 40 points, a double-digit overperformance to the top of the November ticket.
Connecticut
* In Connecticut’s House District 40 special election, Democrat Dan Gaiewski overperformed the top of the November ticket by 16 points.
Delaware
* In Delaware’s Senate District 1 special election, Democrat Dan Cruce overperformed the top of the November ticket by 10 points.
Florida
* In Florida’s 1st Congressional District, Democrat Gay Valimont overperformed by 23 points in a Trump +37 district, marking Democrats’ best performance in the district this century and flipping Pensacola for the first time in decades.
* In Florida’s 6th Congressional District, Democrat Josh Weil secured a massive 16-point overperformance in a Trump +30 district.
* In Florida’s Senate District 15 special election, Democrat LaVon Bracy Davis overperformed the top of the November ticket by 22 points.
* In Florida’s House District 40 special election, Democrat RaShon Young overperformed the top of the November ticket by 15 points.
Georgia
* In Georgia’s Senate District 21 special election, Democrat Debra Shigley secured a massive 11-point overperformance in a Trump +34 district after forcing Republicans to spend more than a million dollars defending this deep red seat.
Iowa
* In Iowa’s Senate District 35 special election, Democrat Mike Zimmer flipped a district Trump won by 21 points, overperforming the top of the November ticket by 25 points.
* In Iowa’s House District 100 special election, Democrat Nannette Griffin overperformed the top of the November ticket by 24 points.
* In Iowa’s Senate District 1 special election, Democrat Catelin Drey flipped a district by 10 points in a Trump +12 district, breaking Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate.
Maine
* In Maine’s House District 24 special election, Democrat Sean Faircloth overperformed the top of the November ticket by 18 points.
Minnesota
* In Minnesota’s Senate District 60 special election, DFL candidate Doron Clark won the election by a margin of 91-9, overperforming the top of the November ticket by 14 points.
* In Minnesota’s House District 34B special election, DFL candidate Xp Lee beat Republican Ruth Bittner by over 20 points, filling the seat of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman who was tragically killed in June.
Nebraska
* John Ewing Jr. clinched a victory in the Omaha Mayoral race, unseating the longest-serving Republican-aligned incumbent mayor in the country by an overwhelming majority.
Pennsylvania
* Dan Goughnour secured the Pennsylvania House majority for Democrats, winning in House District 35 by nearly 30 points, a 13-point overperformance.
* Democrat James Malone claimed an upset victory in an R+23 state Senate district in Lancaster County — a district that hasn’t had a Democrat representing it since 1979, and a Democratic president hadn’t won Lancaster County since Lyndon B. Johnson won it in 1964.
Rhode Island
* In Rhode Island’s 4th Senate District, Democrat Stefano Famiglietti won a landslide victory, winning over 80% of the vote — a 56-point overperformance.
South Carolina
* In South Carolina’s 50th House District, Democrat Keishan Scott cruised to victory, overperforming the top of the November ticket by 36 points and winning over 70% of the vote.
Wisconsin:
* Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford beat Elon Musk-backed Brad Schimel by double digits in a bellwether race that showed Wisconsin voters squarely rejecting the influence of Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and billionaire special interests.
Virginia
* In Virginia’s 11th Congressional District special election, Democrat James Walkinshaw beat Republican Stewart Whitson by 50 points, overperforming the top of the November ticket by 16 points.
What It Means: Democrats Are Strong, Republicans Are Weak
Donald Trump and Republicans are weak, and it’s showing at the polls. Trump is hugely unpopular, and underwater on the economy, immigration, and trade — the same issues that he ran on in 2024. Republicans know they’re in trouble: that’s why they’re releasing faulty polls in contradiction with independent polling, lying about their opponents, and
not campaigning with Donald Trump.
Democrats, on the other hand, are in a strong position. I’ve traveled to 33 states in my first eight months as Chair and have seen tremendous energy across the country. Generic balloting for the 2026 midterms consistently shows Democrats ahead of their Republican counterparts. And with exceptional candidates who are laser-focused on lowering costs, protecting health care, and fighting back against Trump’s attempts to cheat in the 2026 midterms, Democrats have a winning agenda, message, and strategy as we head toward November 4.
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