Oct. 17, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

  

Democrats’ Lead In 2026 Congressional Ballot Shrinks To Lowest Since May Amid Shutdown And President Trump’s Mideast Peace Deal

By Manzanita Miller 

Democrats’ lead in the generic Congressional ballot is at the lowest point it has been since late May, with Democrats holding onto a meager 1.7 percentage point lead, down from 3.3 points just two weeks ago. These past two weeks have included Congressional Democrats shutting the government down, bringing services to a halt over refusal to let go of taxpayer subsidies for illegal aliens, and arguably the largest step forward for peace in the Middle East this century with the adoption of President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for Gaza and the return of all living Israeli hostages.    

According to Real Clear Polling’s average, Congressional Democrats’ lead in the generic Congressional ballot has fallen to just 1.7 percentage points, down from 3.3 points on Oct. 1, and the smallest lead for Democrats since May 21. Democrats lead Republicans by less than two percentage points in the latest round of polling, with 44.5 percent of voters planning to support Democrats in 2026 and 42.8 percent planning to support Republicans. The last time Democrats led Republicans by less than 1.7 points was on May 21, when Democrats led by a single point, 45.6 percent to 44.6 percent.   

Among the issues encapsulated in the latest round of polling that sees Democrats losing a significant amount of ground in the generic Congressional ballot is President Donald Trump’s massive peace deal victory in the Middle East, and the government shutdown, which an increasing share of the electorate blames Democrats for. 

An Economist/YouGov survey released Oct. 13, the day after all living Israeli hostages were returned home safely, shows strong support for the president’s 20-point plan for peace in the Middle East, which includes a ceasefire, the return of all Israeli hostages, an interim government for Gaza without the influence of Hamas, and economic development for the region. 

Voters say 46 points — 53 percent to seven percent — that they support President Trump’s Israel-Hamas peace deal. Republicans support the peace deal by 66 points, 70 percent to four percent, and independents support the deal by 41 points, 47 percent to six percent. Even Harris voters approve of the deal by 41 points, 51 percent to 10 percent, and Democrats approve of the deal by 34 points, 44 percent to 10 percent.    

Then there is the government shutdown, which the mainstream media and Congressional Democrats attempted to blame Republicans for, but polling shows Democrats are the ones who’ve lost favorability — and their 3.3 percentage point lead in the generic Congressional ballot — since the shutdown began.  

According to a Morning Consult survey, released Oct. 6, the share of voters blaming Democrats for the government shutdown increased within the first week of the shutdown. While 32 percent of voters blamed Democrats for the shutdown at the end of September, that number jumped six percentage points to 38 percent a week into the shutdown. Slightly more voters, 43 percent, blamed Republicans for the shutdown, but that number fell two points since September. 

The latest Economist/YouGov survey also shows that over just the past seven days, the share of Americans blaming Democrats for the shutdown has risen three percentage points, from 30 percent on Oct. 6 to 33 percent on Oct. 13.   

In one week, the share of women blaming Democrats for the shutdown rose seven percentage points, going from 24 percent to 31 percent. The share of moderates and independents blaming Democrats rose substantially over the past week as well. Seventeen percent of moderates and independents blamed Democrats for the shutdown on Oct. 6, but that number rose to 26 percent for both groups by Oct. 13.  

While the midterms are still months away, Democrats are rapidly losing ground as President Donald Trump’s historic peace deal takes effect, and as Congressional Democrats hold the government hostage until their healthcare-for-illegals funds are included in a deal. Democrats are even reluctant to give President Trump credit for the historic Middle East peace deal, a reality that could cost them goodwill among independents and moderates next year.  

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/10/democrats-lead-in-2026-congressional-ballot-shrinks-to-lowest-since-may-amid-shutdown-and-president-trumps-mideast-peace-deal/ 

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Republican Takes Lead In Virginia Attorney General Race As Poll Flips After Jay Jones’ Calls For Violence Revealed

By Robert Romano

Virginia Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares has jumped to a 5-point lead over challenger Democrat Jay Jones, a former Virginia House of Delegates member, in the latest poll by Trafalgar Group taken Oct. 13 to Oct. 15, 49.5 percent to 44.6 percent, with 6.2 percent undecided.

That result is flipped from the September poll taken by Trafalgar that showed Jones ahead, 48.8 percent to 45 percent, with 5.9 percent undecided. Miyares went up by 4.5 points in the l and Jones went down by 4.2 points, showing Miyares’ new supporters were Jones supporters last month. The race has shifted, although it remains to be seen how early voting might make it closer than it looks in the poll.

The difference in the race in case you’ve been living under a rock is that Jones told a Republican lawmaker Delegate Carrie Coyner in 2022 via text message he wished there’d be “two bullets” in the head of the Republican leader of the House of Delegates, Todd Gilbert, and then when she said to stop, he instead called her up to express his rationale, wishing that Gilbert’s children would die from gun violence so that more Republicans would oppose gun violence.

As a result, suddenly a race that looked like a slam dunk for Democrats just a month ago could easily be a loss — and it could be bleeding into the race for governor, too, between Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former U.S. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger.

In the same set of Trafalgar polls, Spanberger was leading Earle-Sears 47.1 percent to 41.9 percent with 9.4 percent undecided last month but now it’s 47.5 percent to 45.3 percent with 6.4 percent undecided this month. The Republican increased by 3.4 points and the Democrat only by 0.4 percent. It’s narrowing.

Suddenly, thanks to Jones — but also Spanberger and national Democrats’ curious decision not to demand that Jones leave the race — Virginia is very interesting in both the Attorney General and the Governor’s race. 

It would be a first for Republicans in recent decades to retain either the Governor and Attorney General seats after a Republican won the White House. Usually, after Republicans win the White House, Democrats should expect to do well in both races, and vice versa if a Democrat wins the Presidency like Joe Biden did in 2020, with the 2021 elections in Virginia going to Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and Miyares, the sitting Attorney General.

There is some thought that Virginia and New Jersey, which also sees a competitive race for Governor between Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, could offer some insight into voters’ moods ahead of the 2026 midterms, which similarly usually go against the party that just won the White House.

If Republicans were to win any of these races, or even if they just come much closer than expected, that will be a tremendous show of weakness for Democrats in what should have been relatively easy races for Democrats to win following President Donald Trump’s historic win in 2024.

It’s about beating the odds, and right now, thanks to Jay Jones — other factors might include Charlie Kirk’s tragic politically motivated assassination in September (and some Democrats’ reactions to it denouncing Kirk despite his murder), Democrats shutting down the federal government to expand Obamacare and give health care to illegal aliens, Democrats’ lukewarm response to President Trump’s peace initiatives in the Middle East and elsewhere, and Democrats’ resistance to the enforcement of federal immigration and basic state and local criminal laws in big cities — Republicans appear to have a better chance than usual at winning. 

Apparently, there could be enough Democrats and independents who would normally vote Democrat this year in Virginia (and maybe elsewhere) who were absolutely disgusted by Jay Jones’ calls for violence, which are also against Virginia law, who see no other choice than to either stay home or flip parties this cycle, making the decision to stand by Jones potentially one of the more foolish calls in recent political history. As usual, stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/10/republican-takes-lead-in-virginia-attorney-general-race-as-poll-flips-after-jay-jones-calls-for-violence-revealed/