From RAND Policy Currents <[email protected]>
Subject How to Stabilize the U.S.-China Rivalry
Date October 16, 2025 6:38 PM
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** Oct. 16, 2025
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How to Stabilize the U.S.-China Rivalry

Growing tensions between the United States and China pose serious risks, including economic warfare, political subversion, and outright military conflict. What might it take to keep competition between the world's two superpowers from spiraling out of control? A new RAND report explores that question and outlines several recommendations to stabilize the U.S.-China rivalry. Here are just a few:

- Clarify U.S. objectives. The United States could adopt language that explicitly rejects absolute versions of victory and accepts the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party.

- Seek agreements to limit cyber competition. It is possible to achieve changes in China's behavior through formal public accords and private understandings.

- Declare mutual acceptance of strategic nuclear deterrence. This could begin with simple statements on nuclear use and broad commitments to not threaten the security of one another deterrents.

Even though the United States and China remain far from conceptualizing an end to their rivalry, steps like these could lay the groundwork for stabilizing the competition. As the authors note, "Reducing the risk of crises, preventing unnecessary cascading of competitive moves, and preserving limited areas for positive coordination can benefit both sides."

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