Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** Oct. 14, 2025
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Gaza Ceasefire: Netanyahu Faces an Uncomfortable Truth
Questions linger about whether the ceasefire in Gaza will hold and how all parties might approach the next phase of the U.S.-sponsored plan. But the deal nonetheless marks a potential turning point in ending the devastating war between Israel and Hamas.
Writing in the New York Times, RAND's Shira Efron says that it's understandable why Israel's government would celebrate the agreement while suggesting that the ceasefire may be temporary and a strategic achievement.
Admitting otherwise, she says, means acknowledging an uncomfortable truth--that the longest major war in Israeli history led not to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's promise of total victory and the destruction of Hamas but to a negotiated settlement resurrecting the very ideas Netanyahu has long opposed.
Under the U.S.-sponsored plan, Hamas will disarm but not disappear. And the organization will maintain some control even as it theoretically surrenders power. Further, the ideas of Israeli settlements in Gaza and annexation in the West Bank seem to be off the table.
In other words, this "victory" is really a defeat of Netanyahu's vision, Efron says. But that defeat is a win "for Israelis, Palestinians and others in the region who seek an alternative to prolonged bloodshed."
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** More on the Middle East
- In Foreign Affairs, Efron says that the "tactical brilliance" of the U.S. plan is that its ambiguity affords each side a narrative of triumph. However, that deliberate vagueness cuts both ways. Sustained pressure on all parties will be required moving forward, she writes: "The most demanding work begins now."
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- Appearing on NPR earlier this month, Efron discussed how the war in Gaza has changed what it means to be Israeli.
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- Our most-clicked item last week was a Q&A with Efron on what it would take to finally achieve lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
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Preparing for Putin's Death
Russian President Vladimir Putin turned 73 last week. According to RAND Europe experts, Western nations should start planning now for a future leadership transition in Moscow. NATO allies can take concrete steps, such as conducting scenario planning, strengthening the alliance's front line, and preparing for an intensified information battle. Failing to act could leave the West vulnerable to a succession process in Russia that may prove "surprising, drawn out, and violent."
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Addressing America's Power Crunch
The rise of AI. Decarbonization efforts. A surge in industrial activity. These trends have created unprecedented pressure on the U.S. power grid. What can be done to meet growing demand for electricity? RAND researchers tackle this question in a new report, pinpointing dozens of barriers and suggesting how to overcome them. Implementing the authors' recommendations--from improving federal planning to fixing inefficient interconnection processes--could add 92 to 297 gigawatts of capacity by 2030.
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** RAND Recommends
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- Cruise missiles are the go-to first-strike option for the United States and other major military powers. RAND's Michael Bohnert explains why.
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- RAND's David Ochmanek explains the importance of Alaska's military infrastructure as the United States faces dual threats from Russia and China.
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- There are effective and efficient measures that can be taken to defend against mass shootings, says RAND's John Hollywood.
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** Events
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An Examination of Migration in Afghanistan
Wednesday, October 22, 2025 (Online)
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The 'Big Shift' from Hospitals to Communities
Thursday, November 6, 2025 (Online)
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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