THE DAY AFTER

Donald Trump took a victory lap through the Middle East to celebrate the deal he called the end of the Israel-Hamas war. But lasting peace remains deeply uncertain.

• There were scenes of joy and celebration in both Israel and Gaza today as two years of horrific fighting appeared, at least for now, to come to an end. The final twenty living Israeli hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, 2023 were returned, and Israel released approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees and prisoners, all as part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal. Israel Defense Forces troops pulled back to relieve pressure on ravaged areas in Gaza and create room for aid to flow in.

• All that good news was tempered by the weight of what’s been lost. Israel killed an estimated 64,000 Palestinians, and while it’s unknown how many of that number are Hamas fighters, experts say many were women and children. Hamas and other groups killed 83 of 251 hostages they took on October 7, in addition to the 1,200 Israelis murdered in the attack. Deceased prisoners on both sides are yet to be returned.

• Donald Trump, in Israel and Egypt, did what any American president would do after a major ceasefire deal: Claim credit. But Trump also did that thing that only he can do so uniquely well: embarrass America on the international stage by being… well, himself. Trump’s triumphant speech in front of the Israeli Knesset included contemptuous sneers at former Democratic Presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama. He also urged the Israeli President to pardon PM Benjamin Netanyahu for several criminal charges he’s facing.

• Trump also let everyone know what was on his mind as he greeted a succession of leaders later in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt. “A lot of cash. Unlimited cash!” Trump gushed, while pointing at an Emirati official during a photo-op. On one hand, it’s true that wealthy Middle Eastern countries are set to play a critical role in rebuilding war-ravaged Gaza and hopefully steering it toward a viable future. On the other, Trump’s demonstrated history of using those leaders’ cash to enrich himself in the form of billions in crypto and even a luxury jet makes the display extra-gross.

Still, the cease-fire and hostage-detainee returns are un-alloyed good news. What comes next could be much harder.

• A lot has to happen for Trump’s peace deal to be more than a temporary pause in fighting. Hamas has yet to agree to the terms for disarming and giving up governance of Gaza in favor of a technocratic board led primarily by Arab neighbors. In a show of just how difficult that could be, remaining Hamas forces fanned out across Gaza arresting rivals and killing nearly three dozen Palestinians the group described as members of “a gang.” Trump suggested Hamas was preventing “big crime” and that the group had “approval for a period of time” to do it.

• Disarmament and governance benchmarks have to be met before Israeli forces withdraw further from the heart of Gaza, and eventually back into Israel with a security buffer zone between the territory and Israel. But the actual conditions under which Israel would agree to a full withdrawal remain unclear.

• The United Nations said aid groups were making “real progress” in staging food and supplies to pour into Gaza. That’s critical, but it also highlights how easily today’s welcome progress could slip away if the next phases of the peace deal aren’t met.

• Palestinians’ Arab neighbors have figured out how to win Trump’s favor through praise and by making him personally richer. They do have, as Donald Trump says, “unlimited cash.” Whether they can combine it with the political commitments, technical knowhow, and cooperation that will be needed to keep Hamas out of power and Israeli missiles away from Gaza remains to be seen.

“Any hope in the region is largely due to the fact that Trump will look like a chump if the deal collapses,” Graeme Wood wrote in The Atlantic. “He will do anything to avoid chump status.”

WHAT ELSE?

Trump’s efforts to prosecute his enemies is ramping up — and another prosecutor has been fired under murky circumstances. Maggie Clearly worked in the Virginia office that is going after former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. But she was removed from the office now led by Trump loyalist Lindsey Halligan. It’s unclear if Clearly still has a job at the Justice Department.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) claimed to be “unaware” that the Trump administration fired thousands more government employees as it continues to ramp up pressure on Democrats in the 13-day-old government shutdown. Johnson refused to negotiate with Dems seeking to shore up expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and warned the shutdown could end up being the longest in history.

Trump whipsawed financial markets again with more big talk about tariffs. This time he threatened steep new tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday (causing stocks to crater) then walked it back on Sunday evening (causing stocks to recover). “It will all be fine!” Trump said on Truth Social. Wow, how reassuring!

Someone seemed to know just how… and when… to capitalize on the market turmoil Trump unleashed. An unknown investor took a $163 million short position on Bitcoin just 30 minutes before Trump’s latest tariff announcement Friday. That position bet on Bitcoin to lose value, which it did, to the tune of $19 billion. The “mystery” investor pocketed $193 million. Who the hell was that, and did they know something? Just MAGA-style capitalism in action, folks.

Light at the End of the Email…

Approximately $6.5 billion in medical debt is getting wiped away for 2.5 million North Carolina residents thanks to a program started last year by Gov. Roy Cooper. That’s great news in a country that allows its residents to rack up billions in medical debt!

Airports in some Portland, Seattle, Phoenix and other US cities are refusing to play DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s political propaganda videos on their TSA lines. Noem has been using these videos to blame Democrats for the government shutdown. Airports in some smaller cities like Buffalo and West Chester, N.Y. are also refusing to play them.

Billie Eilish sent a “thank you” goodie bag to the fan who stepped in to help when another fan pulled the singer through a barricade and into the crowd at a recent concert in Miami. Way to go Aniyah!