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Money Metals News Alert
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October 13, 2025
– Gold and silver continue to rally sharply – each pushing to new
all-time highs this morning.
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The big news is the
incredible tightness in the London silver market, where the free float of
available silver is being pressured by demands for physical metal withdrawals.
There are way more claims
to silver ounces than exist in London vaults. Normally things run smoothly that
way, because most holders don't want the metal. But a run on the bank, so to
speak, has developed in recent days.
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The London market has long been the
epicenter of physical precious metals trading in the Western world.
Earlier this year, a large amount of
gold and silver was moved from London over to U.S.-based depositories trying to
get ahead of potential U.S. import tariffs on gold and silver.
Those tariffs never materialized, but
the London-New York spread in pricing incentivised huge amounts of metal being
physically moved into the U.S. – depleting London inventory.
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More recently, huge
physical demand for silver started coming from the Middle East, India, and the
rest of Asia – and that has been draining even more silver out of London
over the past few months.
Combine that with big
inflows into silver ETFs – funds that ALSO happen to source their silver in
the London market – and the available supply is getting extremely tight.
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At Money Metals, we've seen huge
silver demand coming in – many of it coming from first-time customers. It
seems the headlines are grabbing some attention out there. These are certainly
exciting times for long-time holders of gold and silver.
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Gold : Silver Ratio (as of
Friday's closing prices) – 80.2 to
1
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Gold???s Acceleration Reveals Vanishing Calm,
Coming Change
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Gold has crossed $4,000 per ounce just
200 days after it passed $3,000. What began as a slow march from crisis to
crisis has transformed into an accelerated sprint that is reshaping how savers,
investors, and policymakers worldwide view the world???s oldest monetary metal.
Beyond the simple symbolism of a round
number, the current moment captures the increasingly uneasy intersection of
macroeconomic stress, geopolitical instability, and feedback loops of momentum.
Several overlapping and reinforcing
forces are driving
gold???s surge:
- Volatile trade policies,
central bank division, and persistent fiscal dysfunction have fueled demand for
safe assets. The US government???s repeated shutdown standoffs and spiraling debt
dynamics make gold particularly attractive as ???insurance;??? particularly in the
current shutdown, which seems likely to endure.
- There is a tiresome critique
that gold pays no dividend and has no yield, but that becomes an advantage when
real (inflation-adjusted) rates turn negative. As the Federal Reserve has embarked upon an easing campaign, the
opportunity cost of holding gold declines, giving the metal a fresh tailwind.
- With the US dollar sliding,
gold becomes cheaper for overseas buyers and more desirable as a reserve
diversifier.
- From Beijing to Brazil,
central banks have been steadily adding to gold reserves. These moves are partly
about diversifying away from the dollar and partly about hedging against
sanctions or geopolitical shocks.
- Exchange-traded funds backed
by physical gold are attracting fresh capital. Some of this is retail money, but a
large portion is institutional flows — allocations made with the intention
of sticking through volatility.
- Unlike oil or grain, gold
production cannot be scaled quickly. Mines face capital shortages, political risk,
and geological limits. Recycling adds some supply, but nowhere near enough to
offset surging demand.
- Rising public debt,
unconventional fiscal policies, and questions about central bank independence are
corroding
faith in fiat currency. Each new episode of political dysfunction adds to the
case for holding tangible assets.
- For some investors, gold is
not just an investment but a hedge against extreme scenarios: war, defaults, or
sudden inflation spikes. These convex, ???lottery ticket??? flows add depth to the
rally.
The result is a perfect storm of
forces reinforcing one another. Gold is not rising for one reason; It is rising
for many.
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The temptation is usually to dwell on
the neatness of round numbers: $4,000 per ounce is a record high; higher
(obviously) than $3,000 per ounce, with eyes already focused on $5,000 per ounce.
But a more revealing story emerges
when we consider how quickly gold has moved between these thresholds. Gold first
crossed $1,000 per ounce in 2008, during the financial crisis. It would take until
August 2020 — nearly 12 years, or roughly 4,400 days — before gold
finally broke through the $2,000 per ounce level.
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The journey from $2,000 in
2020 to $3,000 per ounce in March 2025 took about five years, or roughly 1,700
days. The latest leap has been the most astonishing. Gold cleared $3,000 per ounce
in March 2025 and crossed $4,000 per ounce by October 2025. That???s a span of only
about seven months (roughly 200 days).
This contraction in ???days
per new-thousand-dollar-ounces??? is dramatic: from twelve years, to five, to less
than one.
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It suggests a regime shift: either an
accelerating loss of confidence in financial systems, or an extraordinary momentum
cycle that could itself become self-reinforcing.
The speed of these price leaps offers
a richer narrative than psychological milestones alone.
In practical terms, it raises
questions: if the time to each new level is shrinking, are we watching a bubble
— or are we witnessing a structural repricing of gold???s role in the
financial system?
Quantifying the intervals provides an
investigative framework: one can map ???days per new-thousand-dollar-ounces??? against
macro factors such as real yields, central bank reserves, or debt-to-GDP ratios.
If gold???s acceleration lines up with deteriorating fundamentals, it???s possible
that the price move reflects more than momentum; it signals a profound market
reassessment.
Gold at $4,000 per ounce is more than
a headline. It is the sum of overlapping uncertainties: inflation, currency
instability, debt, central bank policy, and geopolitical turbulence. But it is
also a story told in numbers.
The shrinking intervals between each
successive $1,000 price gain speak both of, and to, a world that is changing
faster than before. One where safe havens are sought not gradually, but urgently.
It???s now quite clear that gold can
reach $5,000 per ounce.
The outstanding issue is how quickly
it will take to do so, and what that speed tells us — if anything —
about the evolving state of the global economy.
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This week's Market Update was
authored by Money Metals Contributing Writer Peter C. Earle of
AIER.
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