View this post on the web at [link removed]

Thanks for reading By the Ballot! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
With national 24/7 news channels and wall-to-wall White House coverage, it’s always about flipping the Senate, taking back the House, or primarying someone on a federal level. That’s the shiny object. But the real battleground right now isn’t Congress—it’s the state legislatures. Those are the last line of defense.
Republicans control 28 state legislatures, Democrats control 21 (excluding Nebraska’s unique setup). That means most states don’t have the same protection from Trump’s administration as Democratic states do. And Trump himself has said he’d rather let states decide their own laws.
While it’s tempting to focus on getting more progressives into Congress, the biggest impact—and biggest gains to be made—are in the statehouses.
And you know who’s understood this for decades? Republicans. The GOP has systematically stacked state legislatures, supreme courts, county boards, and school boards. It’s been a slow burn for years, and it’s now paying off. If Democrats want lasting, direct change, we need to build the infrastructure from the bottom up.
Direct Impacts
Though many state legislatures only meet for part of the year, their influence is enormous. They introduce far more bills than Congress—sometimes as much as 23 times more annually. The smaller district sizes and closer proximity to constituents means state reps and senators take up a wider variety of issues, including very local problems that would never reach the federal level.
Think about it this way: in most companies, you’ve got your boss, your boss’s boss, and then the C-Suite, board of directors, and CEO. The C-Suite and board (Congress and the President) set the overall direction, but those decisions often take years to trickle down. Your boss’s boss (the Governor) influences things above you, but you’re only indirectly affected. Your boss (the state legislature) makes the decisions that shape your daily life immediately—what you work on, how your environment functions, and what rules you operate under.
That’s the role of state legislatures in government. They control the “everyday levers” of policy, backed by the Constitution’s Tenth Amendment, which reserves powers not given to the federal government for the states and the people. That means legislatures oversee:
Education – determining most school funding, setting curricula, and academic standards.
Healthcare – managing Medicaid, regulating health insurance, overseeing nursing homes.
Crime and safety – writing criminal codes, setting penalties, and supervising police.
Transportation – funding roads, maintaining infrastructure, regulating licenses and registration.
Elections – running voter registration, defining voting processes, and drawing districts.
And unlike Congress, state legislatures are often more efficient. Less partisan gridlock. Faster legislative sessions. Bills tailored to local problems. That means state laws usually take effect much faster than federal legislation, creating immediate changes in people’s lives.
Because districts are smaller, residents also have a much greater ability to influence outcomes. While a U.S. Senator may have staff to filter thousands of calls and emails, many state reps personally answer correspondence from constituents. A determined group of residents can move the needle in a statehouse in a way that would be almost impossible in Congress.
The GOP’s Decades-Long Legislative Power Grab
In 1973, Mark Rhoads, an Illinois state house staffer, started the Conservative Caucus of State Legislators to counter the Environmental Protection Agency, wage controls, and other federal actions in the wake of Barry Goldwater’s defeat. The name was eventually changed to the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), co-founded by Heritage Foundation founder Paul Weyrich, future congressman Henry Hyde, and Ronald Reagan’s PAC director Lou Barnett.
What ALEC does is deceptively simple: it churns out “model bills” for conservative state legislators, pre-drafted by right-wing activists and corporate interests. Lawmakers can take these bills back to their chambers, file them with minimal edits, and pass them into law. In effect, ALEC has become a [ [link removed] ]“bill mill” [ [link removed] ] that mass-produces legislation across all 50 states, giving Republicans a pipeline of ready-made laws that push conservative priorities.
The scope of this influence is staggering: in just 7 years, over 600 ALEC-modeled bills were enacted nationwide. Its structure is corporate-like, with multiple task forces specializing in everything from taxes to social issues. ALEC’s ability to marry the agendas of global corporations with state politicians has made it one of the most powerful engines of conservative policymaking in U.S. history.
ALEC’s fingerprints are everywhere:
In the 1980s, [ [link removed] ] it pushed anti-gay propaganda, claiming homosexuality caused psychological harm and led to pedophilia. By 1989, it had published a model bill criminalizing HIV-positive people for having consensual sex without disclosure—a law born out of AIDS panic and fearmongering.
In 2005 [ [link removed] ], Florida passed ALEC’s “Stand Your Ground” law. Within years, 30 states adopted it, and it became the legal basis for George Zimmerman’s acquittal after killing Trayvon Martin in 2012.
In 2011, ALEC published a “State Legislators’ Guide to Repealing ObamaCare” [ [link removed] ] and rolled out model bills to block the ACA. Insurance giants like Humana and UnitedHealthcare directly benefited from ALEC legislation that saved them money while raising costs for patients.
On behalf of Altria [ [link removed] ] (formerly Phillip Morris), ALEC advanced tax breaks for flavored tobacco products to make them cheaper and more attractive to teenagers.
And yet, ALEC maintains its IRS status as a 501(c)(3) “educational” nonprofit, allowing it to dodge lobbying rules and accept tax-deductible donations from corporations and foundations. In reality, ALEC is a lobbying juggernaut, albeit one with a different name. Common Cause even filed an IRS complaint in 2011, arguing that ALEC’s activities should legally be reclassified as lobbying.
The long-term vision is even more chilling. At ALEC’s 2022 summit, one commentator said the quiet part out loud: if the conservative constitutional convention movement succeeds in rewriting the U.S. Constitution, America will finally become the “conservative nation” ALEC has spent decades working toward.
Through ALEC, Republicans found a turbocharger for their state-level strategy: a machine that mass-produces regressive policies while training and equipping lawmakers to pass them efficiently. Democrats, meanwhile, underestimated just how effective this bottom-up power is.
Republicans’ Electoral Route to Dominance
In 2010 [ [link removed] ], Karl Rove outlined the plan for the next election in state legislatures and said, “He who controls the maps can control Congress.” Rove didn’t just hint at a plan — he bragged about it in the Wall Street Journal like a Bond villain revealing his master scheme. With the census around the corner, Rove and his Republican allies unveiled the Redistricting Majority Project (REDMAP), a blueprint to target just 107 key legislative districts in 18 state chambers. If they could flip control, they would redraw the maps and lock in power for a decade or more.
The strategy had already been tested. In 2002, Republicans seized control of the Texas state house and immediately redrew the state’s congressional maps. Overnight, Democrats’ 17–13 edge in the Texas delegation became a 20–12 Republican majority. Safe Democratic seats became impenetrable GOP strongholds, and Republican incumbents suddenly had the luxury of stockpiling money to help allies elsewhere. The lesson was clear: win the maps, and you win the future.
By 2010, Democrats held 11 of the 18 chambers Rove identified; Republicans held 7. After Rove and Republicans pumped millions into those key districts in the 2010 elections? Republicans controlled all 18. REDMAP worked exactly as designed.
The numbers tell the story:
Before 2010: Democrats held a 4,047–3,326 advantage in state legislative seats nationwide.
After REDMAP: Republicans flipped that margin, and by 2011, they were redrawing maps across the country to cement power.
Today: Republicans hold a 4,063–3,214 advantage, a structural edge that has kept them competitive in Congress even when they lose the national popular vote.
REDMAP’s impact went beyond raw numbers. It gave Republicans the power to:
Gerrymander purple states into red fortresses, locking Democrats out of Congress despite winning statewide races.
Supercharge state legislatures with safe Republican majorities, allowing ALEC’s corporate bill mill to churn out regressive policies with little resistance.
Starve Democrats of resources, forcing them to spend big just to compete in districts that had been deliberately carved to favor Republicans.
Rove was right: the party that controls the maps controls the future. And Democrats, distracted by Washington’s glitz and obsessed with the presidency, let Republicans quietly capture the real engine of political power. By the time they looked down from Capitol Hill, the floor had already been pulled out from under them.
The Roadmap to Redemption
For over 13 years, Republicans have controlled nearly 60% of state legislatures, fueled by the perfect storm: REDMAP’s gerrymandering, ALEC’s bill mill, and Democrats’ complacency during the Obama years. While Democrats chased the glamour of Congress and the White House, Republicans were quietly building trenches in state capitals. By the time Democrats woke up, the battlefield was already rigged.
We had a shot of adrenaline after Trump’s first term. Volunteers flooded the streets, statehouse campaigns saw unprecedented energy, and Democrats flipped chambers in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Minnesota. But that fire dimmed under Biden, compounded by the pandemic, and Republicans seized the chance to dig in further. Now, with another Trump administration barreling ahead, Democrats are again at risk of missing the forest for the trees.
The truth is this: Congress is flashy, but state legislatures are where the change actually happens. That’s not just rhetoric; it’s how federalism was designed. The Tenth Amendment gives states sweeping power over education, healthcare, criminal law, transportation, and elections. The day-to-day struggles that make or break people’s lives aren’t set in Washington — they’re decided in Richmond, Tallahassee, Austin, Harrisburg, and Lansing.
And Republicans know it. They’ve run everywhere, even in deep-blue states, and invested in infrastructure to support their candidates from school boards to statehouses. Democrats, meanwhile, often treat red districts as lost causes. That has to change.
There’s a reason this year in Virginia made headlines: Democrats filed a candidate in every single one of the 100 House of Delegates seats. That forced Republicans to defend turf everywhere, draining their resources and keeping them from funneling money to battlegrounds. That’s the model we need to replicate nationwide. Imagine if we did that in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, or North Carolina. Even if we didn’t win all those seats, we’d make Republicans fight on every front instead of cherry-picking their battlegrounds.
The payoff isn’t just immediate — it’s generational. Once Democrats win back these chambers, we can redraw maps in 2030. Trump is already pressuring GOP legislatures to pass unconstitutional gerrymanders in 2025. So yes, Democrats must be willing to play hardball, too. If Republicans can twist maps into grotesque, snake-shaped caricatures of democracy, why shouldn’t we redraw them to empower working people, protect communities of color, and actually reflect voters?
Governors matter here, too. We need executives with teeth who won’t roll over when Trump’s administration leans on them. Leaders like Wes Moore in Maryland, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, JB Pritzker in Illinois, Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Andy Beshear in Kentucky, and Gavin Newsom in California have demonstrated what it means to resist authoritarianism while delivering for their constituents. And we have the chance to add more — like electing Rep. Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, protecting Democratic majorities in Pennsylvania’s courts and legislature, and, right here in Virginia, making Abigail Spanberger the first woman Governor in the Commonwealth’s history while cementing a Democratic trifecta.
There are currently 7 state legislatures with a narrow margin where key investments would make a massive impact:
Arizona
House - 14 D - 21 R
Senate- 13 D - 17 R
Maine
House - 76 D - 73 R
Senate - 20 D - 15 R
Michigan
House - 52 D - 58 R
Senate - 19 D - 18 R
Minnesota
House - 67 D - 67 R
Senate - 33 D - 32 R
Pennsylvania
House - 102 D - 101 R
Senate - 23 D - 27 R
Virginia
House - 51 D - 48 R
Senate - 21 D - 19Rq
Wisconsin
House - 45 D - 54 R
Senate - 15 D - 18 R
That is just 50 seats to effect massive change in the country and that’s just a start.
But none of this happens without us. Volunteers and donors need to stop thinking only in terms of presidential or congressional races. Don’t just go out and help US Senate or US House candidates. Knock doors for your delegate. Phone bank for your state senator. Donate to a local candidate whose name you didn’t even know yesterday. Because here’s the truth: those are the people who will impact your healthcare, your kids’ schools, your voting rights, your grocery bill, and your day-to-day life.
If Democrats start investing big in statehouses now, the payout in Washington will be tenfold later. We can’t just fight for the White House and hope the ripple effects will save us. We need to build from the bottom up, state by state, district by district, until we’ve rebuilt the infrastructure Republicans spent decades perfecting.
The road to redemption isn’t in D.C. — it starts in your backyard.
Here are some links for you to get involved before election day on November 025 if you are able:
Volunteer for Abigail Spanberger for Governor [ [link removed] ]
Volunteer for Ghazala Hashmi for Lt. Governor [ [link removed] ]
Volunteer for Jay Jones for Attorney General [ [link removed] ]
Volunteer for Virginia Democrats in the State House [ [link removed] ]
Volunteer for Rural Democrats in Virginia [ [link removed] ]
Help out 27 Democrats in Red Districts in Virginia [ [link removed] ]
TL;DR
Republicans have spent decades building power from the bottom up — stacking state legislatures, courts, and local offices while Democrats focused too much on Washington. Tools like ALEC’s model bills and Karl Rove’s REDMAP gerrymandering strategy have locked in GOP dominance across the country, giving them control over everyday issues like schools, healthcare, and voting rights.
If Democrats want lasting change, they must invest seriously in statehouse races — everywhere, not just in swing states. Running candidates in every district (like Virginia did this year) forces Republicans to fight everywhere, drains their resources, and sets Democrats up to redraw fair maps after the 2030 census. Governors with backbone, like Whitmer, Moore, and Shapiro, show how state-level leadership can defend against Trumpism.
The bottom line: The fight for America’s future won’t be won in D.C. first — it will be won in statehouses. If Democrats want to protect democracy, they need to prioritize state legislatures now.
By the Ballot is an opinion series published on Substack. All views expressed are solely those of the author and should not be interpreted as reporting or objective journalism or attributed to any other individual or organization. I am not a journalist or reporter, nor do I claim to be one. This publication represents personal commentary, analysis, and opinion only.

Unsubscribe [link removed]?