Could the Texas Gerrymander Backfire on Republicans? | Behind the Numbers

Rick Wilson is on a crazy deadline this week, and Andrew Wilson is in transit, so Behind the Numbers on video will have to wait until next week.

But there are numbers. O! Are there numbers?!

In case you’re just tuning in, a recap: Trump’s polling on virtually all matters, across all demos, has been plunging for the past few months. Some demographics and some issues see a more dramatic drop than others, but even fewer Republicans are satisfied with his performance on most things.

This week, that trend continues. Here are a few things worth noting.

The Shutdown

Numbers on the shutdown are coming in hot. The below YouGov poll from this week shows that Americans place blame, for the most part, on Republicans. It’s no surprise that 80% of Democrats blame the other party, but what’s really worth noting here are the Independents, who blame the Republicans over Dems 41 to 17. I spoke with Andrew Wilson about this. His takeaway is that these numbers have essentially calcified. He doesn’t see them shifting much either way.

Bottom line: Most Americans blame Republicans for the shutdown, and that’s not going to change anytime soon.

Vote Intention

I thought about putting this one last because it’s such a big deal, but decided not to (you’ll see why later). The following is a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs/YouGov poll released today on Trump vote intention. It compared how many people in particular demographics intended to vote for Trump in the past versus how many would vote for him today.

You can see that every demographic on the table is negative. Fewer people in each demo would vote for him today than when they went to the polls last November.

But more notable is the massive drop with independents. A 20-point drop is the ball game.

But that’s not even the biggest story here. The Texas gerrymander was predicated on the Republican’s faith in maintaining the Latino vote share, which went to Trump by 8 points in ‘24 in the Lone Star State. According to the chart below, that advantage has been handily erased and basically reversed.

Bottom line: There’s a non-zero chance that not even a wildly partisan mid-decade gerrymander can overcome polling like this. And where does polling like this come from: really bad policy and terrible leadership.

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Using the Military on Americans

I saved this poll for last because Trump’s use of the military in American cities isn’t just a distraction from all of the above, it’s also potentially catastrophic for Democracy — and deeply unpopular.

Deploying your military on your own citizens is the move of a despot with no other options. It’s not intended to win hearts and minds, it’s intended to inject fear into the population so that hearts and minds don’t matter.

As you can see below, 83% of all adults believe that the military should remain politically neutral. In other words, our military — the greatest the world has ever seen — should not be used for partisan advantage. Even 78% of Republicans buy into the neutrality of our armed forces.

Again, I saved this for last because it lays bare the Trump/Stephen Miller strategy. It is not a policy strategy. It isn’t about creating a better America for you. It’s not about lowering costs, ensuring access to healthcare or clean air or potable water. It’s about sheer power.

And most of us hate it.

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Democrats Remember How to Fight

Rick Wilson · Aug 8

Let’s take a rare and satisfying moment to do something I don’t often get to do: praise the Democratic Party for showing some spine, some smarts, and a willingness to play the damn game like they intend to win it.

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