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Fellow Democrat, when bad things happen some people complain.
We have a unique opportunity of 1 special election coming up in December.
Now, this race is in a tough district for a Democrat to win in normal circumstances.
But these are special elections. And special elections can have very different electorates than other elections.
In other words, Democrats will have a chance of winning these districts one time (and maybe one time only): In a few months in their special.
Our data folks were diving into results and saw this article that detailed a special election to fill a vacant seat in deep red Ohio. Here's what it had to say: |
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"Ohio’s 6th district is very red. Like much of Appalachia, it has a Democratic pedigree that has faded as of late. Barack Obama won this seat twice, but Donald Trump carried it twice himself, winning it by 29 points in 2020. [...]
"But the special election’s electorate was very different, with a significantly smaller Republican turnout advantage. Republicans enjoyed a R +44 margin in the March primary, but the primary voters who also turned out in the May special election were only R +22, cutting the GOP’s district-wide edge in half in this lower-turnout election.
"This suggests a significant Democratic turnout advantage on an individual basis; Democrats were more likely to turn out again for the special election than Republicans, and while there was still enough Republican turnout in the district to keep the seat red, the result was a far closer election than almost anyone predicted." |
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You should read the full article here. It's a fascinating look at how the shape of the electorate will put some districts into play during the special elections because of differences in turnout.
But here's what we know. Even though Democrats will have an advantage because of the partisan makeup of the special electorate, it will take money and resources to win these races.
And Republicans will likely pour MILLIONS into defending this seat.
So we are reaching out to you. The first of these special elections will take place on December 2nd. That's not a lot of time.
Advantages in turnout will not be enough. If we are outspent here, in tough terrain, it's game over.
And frankly, not enough donors are as smart as you and understand how unique of an opportunity this is.
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