The next six weeks represent a critical test for NYC. 

Dear John,

Phase 3 of NYC’s reopening began yesterday. Nail salons and other personal services are open at 50% capacity. Some low-contact sports can start up again (the Parks Department is working diligently to get the basketball hoops back up). Dog runs are open, a relief for many stir-crazy people and pups (and we were able to cut the ribbon on the wonderful new Kensington Dog Run at the Parade Grounds). But indoor dining in restaurants, originally slated for this phase, was rightly kept on hold given the alarming rise in cases around the country in places where restaurants and bars opened quickly. 

The changes may not feel that big. But the next six weeks represent a critical test for NYC. 

As we expand testing & tracing, will we be able to find and isolate cases fast enough? As people resume going to work and other activities, will we achieve social distancing compliance? Can we get and keep the “R0” (pronounced “R-naught,” the average number of new infections that come from a single case) down well below 1.0? Can we keep the virus from spreading as we reopen?

Whether and how we can begin to reopen schools after Labor Day (which we expect to hear more about from the DOE this week), whether or not we can maintain a semblance of ongoing economic and social activity in the fall, will depend on how well we set up systems to ensure COVID-19 cases are identified, isolated, and treated at the scale needed to keep our city healthy and safe. 

To get a better sense of where we are, I checked in over the long weekend with Jackie Bray, one of the senior City Hall officials tasked with coordinating the City’s Test and Trace program. After press reports that the tracers were not having enough success getting information from people, I wanted to understand better where things stand.

Jackie was honest about the challenges, and you can follow the data here (they post it every Monday). Of the 10,066 cases from June 1-27, more than half did not have a phone number, did not answer, or did not complete the interview. From those who did, they reached over 6,800 contacts, and identified nearly 1,000 who were symptomatic. The City then began providing resources (e.g. food delivery) to over 3,200 people to support their quarantine. The rates have gotten a little better each week since they started, but there is a long way to go.

What are they doing to improve the system? They will begin doing home visits/door-knocking and texting in addition to phone calls. They are going to target outreach resources in highly-affected communities. And they are trying to use home-grown manufacturing resources to help speed up the time it takes to get results (with cases growing across the country, and still no national strategy, the turnaround time on testing is growing, a critical weakness).

The challenge is not just for them, it’s for all of us collectively. Not enough people are getting tested (and too many are getting antibody tests rather than diagnostic ones). If you’ve been in crowds or group activities, if you’re thinking of seeing older relatives, or just if you haven’t been tested yet: get tested. The current guidance is to get a diagnostic test routinely, whether or not you have symptoms or have been exposed to the virus. If you plan to visit someone at higher risk for the virus, get a test and maintain strict physical distancing for at least 10 days before your visit. You can find the location closest to you here: nyc.gov/covidtest. And obviously, if you get a call from a contact tracer, please answer and be as forthcoming as possible.   

And of course, too many people across communities aren’t complying with social distancing guidelines, wearing masks properly over nose and mouth, keeping our distance. It’s not easy to build a culture of compliance across all our communities -- but it is so important.  

One small piece of good news on that front: the City has put out an RFP for community- and faith-based organizations to be part of the City’s community ambassador program. These organizations will be contracted to hire teams of people with the relationships and language skills to help New Yorkers of all backgrounds understand the current health guidance, follow social distancing practices, know when to get tested, and get access to testing and medical care. 

This program will hire hundreds of people, not the thousands I had imagined as part of a NYC Public Health Corps -- but it’s still a key element of what will be needed to help New Yorkers in all parts of our city get access to information, connected to resources, and encouraged to follow the social distancing guidelines that will keep all of us healthy. The RFP is open until July 13th, so if you know of good community- or faith-based groups please help spread the word.

Even if we succeed in expanding and improving our test and trace capacity, and get a stronger community ambassador program up and running -- and there’s sure no guarantee -- this fall will be unlike any other. We are anticipating more information in the next few days about how the DOE is approaching school in the fall, but there aren’t any “good” solutions. I’ll have more to say about schools later this week, after we hear more details from DOE.

Meanwhile, after waiting in vain for a response from the de Blasio administration to our letter asking for guidance for childcare centers, Councilmember Debi Rose and I announced our plan to introduce legislation to allow child care centers to reopen in compliance with health and safety guidance from the CDC, the New York State Health Department, and the American Academy of Pediatrics. I’ll continue to push for real plans to save our child care centers, and that reflect the struggles of working parents.

I’d be lying if I told you I wasn’t anxious. It’s very hard to have trust in our public systems right now. And of course many lives are on the line. Especially in light of growing cases around the country, I don’t know whether we will be able to get the systems, infrastructure, and collective action in place that we need to slow the spread of the virus and regain some of the rhythms of daily life that sustain all of us. 

But my conversation with Jackie reminded me that there are a lot of people working very hard to set those systems up. And right now, few things matter more. The next month or so will show us what is possible and how far we have to go. 

Brad

City and State Updates

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