Web Version [link removed] | Update Preferences [link removed] [link removed] California Energy Price Data

for September 2025

Below are the monthly updates from the most current September 2025 fuel price data (GasBuddy.com) and July 2025 electricity and natural gas price data (US Energy Information Administration). To view additional data and analysis related to the California economy visit our website at [[link removed]].

Prices Still Stable After El Segundo Refinery Fire

California had yet another reminder of the potential consequences arising from its regulatory isolation from the broader US and world fuel markets when a fire broke out last Friday at Chevron’s El Segundo Refinery. According to Energy Commission data, this facility represents about 17% of the state’s current gasoline and diesel production capacity. Following completion of the two announced refinery closures, El Segundo will account for about 20%.

The effect on Southern California and state fuel prices remains uncertain, and will depend on the length of time units at the facility remain shut down for inspections and repairs, current inventories (up to date reporting remains on hold due to the federal shutdown), and whether any of the other refineries remaining in the state experience any unscheduled stoppages in this period. Price effects to date mainly have affected jet fuel—the primary unit reported to be affected by the fire—with prices spiking 33 cents [[link removed]] a gallon on Friday.

Prices for other fuels have yet to show major changes. Using the CSAA daily fuels prices, the overall US average for regular gasoline dipped 4.1 cents gallon since Friday, while showing only incremental rises of 1.6 cents for California, 0.5 cent for Los Angeles-Long Beach MSA, and 4.3 cents for San Francisco MSA. Diesel dipped 2.5 cents for the US, 0.1 cent for California, 0.5 cent for Los Angeles-Long Beach, and 1.6 cents for San Francisco.

Most analysts expect any subsequent price effects to be low to moderate. Market analyst Patrick De Haan has lowered his price forecast to a potential rise of 10 to 35 cents a gallon affecting California, Arizona, and Nevada over the next 1-2 weeks. More limited effects are likely for Northern California, Oregon, and Washington, although spot prices in the later two areas were up on Tuesday. On Wednesday, however, De Haan [[link removed]] is reporting a significant decline in wholesale prices that should staunch additional price increases in Southern California, Oregon, and Washington.

California Remains the Leader on Energy Costs

In the latest data, California remains the most costly among the contiguous states and DC for fuels and electricity rates, while also remaining near the top on natural gas rates. California’s rank for average annual electricity bill saw some easing as some states have begun see rising price pressure coming from their adoption of California’s renewable energy policies and as residences have pulled back on electricity use due to its high cost.

Inflation 3.1% Increase Since November 2024

For the 12 months ending July, the California CPI rose 3.1%, rising from 3.0% for the year ending June. In the same period, the US CPI was unchanged at 2.7%. Using the same Department of Finance weighting formula, Food at Home (groceries) rose 2.8% in California compared to 2.2% for the US. Food Away from Home (restaurants and takeout) rose 4.2% compared to the US at 3.9%.

California vs. Rest of US Fuel Price Gap at 52.2% Premium $1.60 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)

The September average price per gallon of regular gasoline in California rose 10 cents from August to $4.65. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.06) rose to $1.60, a 52.2% difference.

1st Ranked by price

In September, California had the highest gasoline price among the contiguous states and DC. Californians paid $1.95 a gallon more than consumers in Mississippi, the state with the lowest price.

California Gasoline Taxes & Fees $1.48 Total Taxes & Fees per Gallon of Gasoline

As we have discussed in prior reports, in the absence of current Energy Commission data, we have begun our own estimates using the Commission factors and the new OPIS data. In September, $1.48 (31.7%) of the price of a gallon of regular gasoline was paid to cover state, local, and federal taxes and fees.

California Carbon Taxes: LCFS and Cap & Trade

In September, total average LCFS charges incorporated in the price Californians pay for fuel eased 4 cents for gasoline but rose 2 cents for diesel, while the Cap & Trade component rose 2 cents for both fuels as credit markets continued to rise following reauthorization of the program. Cap & Trade costs continued to rise in the first week of October, while LCFS remained largely stable.

The costs shown in the table are for the penultimate month-to-date numbers from the OPIS Carbon Market Report, adjusted to incorporate state and local sales tax to account for the full additional costs imposed by these regulatory fees on fuel buyers. Certain Data or Information Provided By: Oil Price Information Service, LLC. Distribution of OPIS data without permission from OPIS is prohibited.

Combining the OPIS data (without the sales tax component) with the previous Energy Commission estimates, Cap & Trade costs are now showing a gradual rise as activity on the program’s extension has increased, while LCFS costs which had been easing before June have reversed course under the new regulations. That apparent easing, however, appears to be due to confusion surrounding the Air Board’s release of the amended regulations, as discussed below. Note that both charts include both the Cap & Trade components charged at the rack and levied on production from the OPIS data, and only the rack component in the Energy Commission data.

The less-than-expected rise in LCFS has at best provided some breathing room for these regulations, although as we have discussed in prior months, the full cost impact to households and employers has been delayed in particular by the substantial inventory of banked credits. As shown in the chart below, some 40-plus million banked credits have placed substantial downward pressure on credit prices, resulting in prices (4-week moving averages) largely remaining level in the first three introductory months of the regulations.

The apparent lower effect to date also appears to be the result of mixed information provided by the Air Resources Board earlier this year. As reported [[link removed]], after OAL rejected the Board’s regulation package last November, early indications were that the revisions would be turned around and the amended LCFS regulations would be applied retroactively beginning in January 2025. OPIS began reporting the new LCFS values accordingly, and it appears that these costs began being priced into the cost of fuels in January. The regulations eventually were released later in the year, becoming effective as of July. After the Board announced this new schedule in mid-May, OPIS adjusted their pricing calculations.

As shown in the chart above, the LCFS amendments have had a significant effect on fuel prices, it just occurred in January rather than as expected in July due to incomplete information coming from the Board. And as the banked credits drop due the higher required usage under the amendments, credit prices and the LCFS cost component are likely to face an upward trend towards the pre-2023 levels.

California vs. Rest of US Diesel Price $1.57 Price Per Gallon Above Other States (CA Average)

The September average price per gallon of diesel in California rose 3 cents from August to $5.16. The California regulatory and tax premium above the average for the US other than California ($3.59) rose to $1.57, a 43.8% difference.

1st Ranked by price

In September, California had the highest diesel price among the contiguous states and DC.

Range Between Highest and Lowest Prices by Region $1.78 Price per Gallon above Other States (Central Sierra Region)

The cost premium above the US (other than California) average price for regular gasoline ranged from $1.48 in the Central Valley Region (average September price of $4.54), to $1.78 in Central Sierra Region (average September price of $4.84).

Highest/Lowest Fuel Prices by Legislative District: California Residential Electricity Price 98.8% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Residential Price for the 12 months ended July 2025 was 31.82 cents/kWh, 98.8% higher than the US average of 16.01 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's residential prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

California Residential Electric Bill 12th Ranked by Cost

For the 12 months ended July 2025, the average annual Residential electricity bill in California was $1,908, or 92.0% higher ($914) than the comparable bill in 2010 (the year the AB 32 implementation began with the Early Action items). In this same period, the average US (less CA) electricity bill for all the other states grew only 29.8% ($407).

In 2010, California had the 9th lowest residential electricity bill among the contiguous states and DC. In the latest data, California tied with Virginia for the 12th highest.

Residential bills, however, vary widely by region. Transforming the 2022 data recently released by the Energy Commission, estimated annual household usage is as much as 82% higher in the interior regions compared to the milder climate coastal areas, and substantially higher when comparing across counties.

$13.5b Above Average for Rest of US

For the 12 months ended July 2025, California's higher electricity prices translated into Residential ratepayers paying $13.5 billion more than the average ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest cost state, California households paid $17.3 billion more.

California Commercial Electricity Price 108.9% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Commercial Price for the 12 months ended July 2025 was 25.42 cents/kWh, 108.9% higher than the US average of 12.17 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's commercial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

California Industrial Electricity Price 175.7% Above Average for Rest of US

California average Industrial Price for the 12 months ended July 2025 was 21.64 cents/kWh, 175.7% higher than the US average of 7.85 cents/kWh for all states other than California. California's industrial prices were the highest among the contiguous states and DC.

$21.0b Above Average for Rest of US

For the 12 months ended July 2025, California's higher electricity prices translated into Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paying $21.0 billion more than ratepayers elsewhere in the US using the same amount of energy. Compared to the lowest rate states, Commercial & Industrial ratepayers paid $27.5 billion more.

California Natural Gas Prices

Average prices ($ per thousand cubic feet; 12-month moving average) for the 12 months ended July 2025 and changes from the previous 12-month period for each end user:

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