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91% of Trump voters think he will be re-elected

July 7, 2020: President Trump is trailing in the latest polls, but 91% of his supporters think he will win re-election.[1][2]

Trump voters are more confident than Biden’s. Among those supporting the president’s opponent, just 81% think the Democrat will emerge victoriously.[2]

Some of the Trump supporters’ confidence may be driven by the mistaken belief that the polls were wrong in 2016. In reality, the polls were pretty good in 2016, but the analysis was horrible.

Another possibility is that some voters may recognize that the president is behind at the moment but expect him to come back.

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Each weekday, Scott Rasmussen’s Number of the Day explores interesting and newsworthy topics at the intersection of culture, politics, and technology. Columns published on Ballotpedia reflect the views of the author.

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Scott Rasmussen is an editor-at-large for Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics. He is a senior fellow for the study of self-governance at the King’s College in New York. His most recent book, Politics Has Failed: America Will Not, was published by the Sutherland Institute in August 2018.

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