July 7, 2020: President Trump is trailing in the latest polls, but 91% of his supporters think he will win re-election.[1][2]
Trump voters are more confident than Biden’s. Among those supporting the president’s opponent, just 81% think the Democrat will emerge victoriously.[2]
Some of the Trump supporters’ confidence may be driven by the mistaken belief that the polls were wrong in 2016. In reality, the polls were pretty good in 2016, but the analysis was horrible.
Another possibility is that some voters may recognize that the president is behind at the moment but expect him to come back.
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