Also: Student loan changes & the Democratic Party's strategy
Expert analysis made easy. Breaking down the news with data, charts, and maps.
Edited by Brady Africk and Hannah Bowen
Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine the growing popularity of "independent" voters, changes to student loan limits after the One Big Beautiful Bill, and the Democratic Party’s political strategy.
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Topline: A recent survey by CNN estimates 44 percent of all Americans call themselves Independents, while only 28 percent identify as Republicans and 27 percent identify as Democrats. AEI’s Jonah Goldberg explains that the data reflect how the label “independent” isn’t a one-size-fits-all political signifier and leave open questions about what a voter actually believes. In past generations, Republican and Democrat labels used to represent a wider set of views similarly to the independent label today—so what changed?
Reading Between the (Party) Lines: Both the Republican and Democratic parties have fallen into institutional isomorphism—the process by which different organizations become similar to each other. The institutions widely associated with the right, ranging from conservative media outlets to advocacy groups, have become predominately aligned with President Donald Trump. In the GOP, the litmus test for being qualified as a “good” Republican is supporting Trump, and in the Democratic Party, it’s resistance to him. Anyone who falls elsewhere is pressured to conform to the rest of their party or identify with the independent label.
Importance of the Party Backing: Today, primary voters, party donors, and ideological media enforcers have very narrow and concentrated demands. Without their support, candidates cannot advance to the general election. While sources of ideological convergence on both the right and left are economically and sociologically complex, the underlying driver is merely political: party support.
"The result is that general election voters are stuck with picking the least objectionable candidate, who was chosen by a process that discourages deviation from the intraparty consensus. I don’t see this dynamic ending anytime soon, which is why I expect a future where nearly everyone calls themselves an independent—regardless of what they mean by that."—Jonah Goldberg
Topline: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB) will cap federal borrowing for law school at $50,000 per year and $200,000 in aggregate starting next fall. While some universities claim this will reduce access to graduate school and push students to the private student loan market, AEI’s Preston Cooper argues that previously unlimited federal student loans encouraged tuition hikes and overborrowing, and that this legislation can help reduce tuition in line with new the loan limits.
Financial Shifts: Santa Clara University School of Law recently announced a guaranteed $16,000 tuition scholarship to all incoming full-time JD students next fall as an initiative to counteract the impact of the OBBB’s student loan cap. As this decision demonstrates, universities may be incentivized to provide their own financial support rather than burdening students and the federal government even further.
Debt Relief: Before Congress passed the Grad PLUS loan program nearly two decades ago, there were caps on student borrowing, and average law school debt was significantly lower than it is today. Cooper asserts that Santa Clara’s most recent move shows that law schools can still survive without unlimited federal loans and that OBBB may relieve students from some of the debt and tuition burdens associated with higher education.
"While uncapped borrowing allowed tuition and underlying costs to get out of control at many graduate schools, the new loan limits in OBBB can move the needle back towards more reasonable tuition costs and debt burdens. It won’t be surprising if we soon see more graduate schools announce tuition reductions similar to Santa Clara Law’s.”—Preston Cooper
Topline: Trump’s approval ratings have fallen slightly in recent weeks, but new data shows that Democrats remain less trusted in Congress than the GOP on multiple key issues. AEI’s Ruy Teixeira argues that the Democrats need policy plan of action, not obstruction, if they want to see real political gains in the midterm elections and beyond. Currently, the Democratic Party is trying to extract concessions from the GOP in Congress, despite the risk of being blamed for the negative impacts of the government shutdown.
Republicans Maintain Favor: According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, the issues voters still believe Republicans have a better plan for than Democrats include crime, immigration, foreign conflicts, the US economy, gun control, and political extremism.
A Necessary Agenda: In the case of immigration, President Trump’s agenda and use of ICE has been highly controversial, but the Democratic Party has not successfully offered voters an alternative policy plan to President Trump’s. Voters need a substantive agenda and clear policy outlines to support in the upcoming election if Democrats want them to believe they can do better than the current administration.
"Basically, Democrats have two choices: they can be a loyal soldier in the #Resistance or they can be a different kind of Democrat, with emphasis on the “different.” Leaning into the former makes it very difficult, if not impossible, to be the latter. Democrats’ revealed preference at this point is to stick with the #Resistance and pursue various subterfuges to avoid the need to truly change their positions—even if the return on that strategy continues to be meager.”—Ruy Teixeira
