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Dear John,

The Conservative Party is adrift in the political wilderness. Polling at a record low of 17% and speaking to rows of empty seats at this week’s conference, Britain’s most successful political brand has rarely looked more weak and withered.

The question now is whether it can recover – and, more importantly, whether its flirtation with Reform UK’s hard-right politics will crystallise into something more substantial.

Image: LeftFootForward ([link removed])


** Leadership Challenges
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**
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Kemi Badenoch, it’s no secret, is struggling. Unpopular with party members and even less so with voters, her days at the helm are likely numbered. From November 2nd – one year in – she’ll be open to a confidence vote. “There’s a whiff of fatality in the air”, one of her fellow Conservative MPs reportedly said.

Her main rival, Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick, has fully embraced Reform-style white identity politics. This week he called Birmingham a “ghetto,” said he “hadn’t seen another white face” there, and that it wasn’t “the kind of country I want to live in.”

It wasn’t a one-off. He’s previously complained about the decline of white residents in Dagenham, echoed “Great Replacement” themes, and recently attended a rally ([link removed]) organised by the founder of Combat 18, the neo-Nazi group once tied to the BNP. He even posted a photo with the guy.

Despite criticising Reform for its “identity politics”, Badenoch defended Jenrick’s Birmingham remarks as “factual.” A remark that would have shattered a political career five years ago is now just business as usual.

Try as she might, Badenoch can’t ignore the populist writing on the wall. While she desperately seeks to keep Reform’s crude politics at arms length (eg, refusing to say ([link removed]) whether she admires Nigel Farage), Jenrick is seemingly much more willing to cater to the rising tide of the far-right.


** A Dark Deal?
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Speculation is mounting about a Tory-Reform pact – and it certainly becomes far more plausible under Jenrick should he challenge Badenoch after November 2nd. Asked about it this week, Jenrick claimed that a Reform deal “wasn’t a priority” – but didn’t deny that it could be on the docket.

From the perspective of both parties, such a deal could make strategic sense.

Nearly two-thirds of Conservative members now back a pact with Reform, and almost half would support a full merger. Reform, meanwhile, are positioning themselves as the main right-wing alternative to Starmer’s unpopular Government, channelling disillusionment into a commanding poll lead.

But Reform, for all their bluster, remain barely a functioning party. Their chaos in local government shows the limits of their organisation: few members, little discipline, and no institutional memory. The Conservatives, by contrast, have a century-old infrastructure – local associations, donors, campaign data, and networks deep within government and the civil service.

Reform have energy but no machinery; the Conservatives have machinery but no momentum. Each fills a void the other can’t.


** The Bigger Question
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**
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What may be emerging from the right is not renewal but a realignment. A collapsing centre-right pulled toward populism and white-identity politics. And as these two parties flirt with their dark deal, the rest of us are left watching a race to the bottom.

There is, of course, a better way forward. Britain could build a real, functional democracy. One where every vote counts equally, and no single party (or far-right mutant hybrid party) can cling to power through distortion and donor cash. One where the reasonable majority of this country can have their voices heard.

The line between the Conservatives and Reform is blurring because our political system rewards false promises and divisive rhetoric, not representation or good policy. Until we fix that, Britain’s democracy will continue sliding further towards destructive politics.

Time is ticking. Will Starmer back the National Commission on Electoral Reform and use the upcoming Elections Bill to get our democracy on the right track?

All the best,

The Open Britain Team
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