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POTENTIAL CHANGES TO SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY INSURANCE
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Jack Smalligan
September 18, 2025
Urban Institute
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_ The anticipated regulation could reduce eligibility for new
applicants to the SSDI program by as much as 20 percent overall, and
up to 30 percent among older workers, 10% reduction could result in
500,000 people losing access over 10 years. _
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The Social Security Administration (SSA) is preparing a proposed rule
that could significantly reshape how disability eligibility is
determined for two major programs: Social Security Disability
Insurance (SSDI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI). This brief
examines the technical and policy issues at stake, including the
transition to modern occupational data and changes to how age and
other factors influence eligibility. Readers will gain insight into
the potential impact of these changes on program participation,
spending, and the economic security of older workers.
WHY THIS MATTERS
SSA’s proposed changes could reduce disability benefit eligibility
for hundreds of thousands of Americans, particularly older workers.
Policymakers, advocates, and researchers should understand the
implications for income support, health coverage, and retirement
decisions. This brief clarifies the technical decisions driving the
regulation and highlights the trade-offs that could shape future
disability policy.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
SSA’s forthcoming regulation includes three major components:
* REPLACING OUTDATED OCCUPATIONAL DATA: SSA plans to adopt the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Requirements Survey (ORS)
to replace the obsolete Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT), a
move with bipartisan support.
* IMPLEMENTING DATA FROM ORS: SSA must make many decisions on how
best to implement and interpret ORS data, such as determining whether
sufficient jobs exist at various skill and exertional levels that will
directly affect eligibility outcomes.
* AGE AS A FACTOR: SSA is considering changes to how age,
education, and past work experience influence disability
determinations. These changes would disproportionately affect older
workers.
ESTIMATED IMPACT:
* The anticipated regulation could reduce eligibility for new
applicants to the SSDI program by as much as 20 PERCENT OVERALL, and
up to 30 PERCENT AMONG OLDER WORKERS. The potential impact on the SSI
program is unclear.
* A 10 percent reduction in SSDI eligibility could result
in 500,000 PEOPLE LOSING ACCESS over 10 years, including 80,000
WIDOWS AND CHILDREN. An additional 250,000 BENEFICIARIES could lose
eligibility for part of the period.
* A 10 percent reduction would REDUCE BENEFITS BY $82 BILLION, with
ripple effects on MEDICARE AND MEDICAID ELIGIBILITY.
* Many denied older workers may claim early retirement benefits,
reducing their lifetime income by UP TO 30 PERCENT.
These findings underscore the importance of how technical
decisions—such as data thresholds and age weighting—can have
profound policy and human consequences.
HOW WE DID IT
We reviewed SSA documentation, academic research, and public
reporting, including estimates from former SSA officials. We modeled
the impact of a 10 percent reduction in SSDI eligibility using program
participation data, actuarial projections, and benefit formulas to
estimate changes in enrollment and spending over a 10-year budget
window.
Download Brief
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* Social Security
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* Disability Insurance
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* Older workers
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* retirement
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* social safety net
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* Medicare
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* Medicaid
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