This Tennessee election has nationwide significance, but no one is voting.

If you’re a Democrat who wants to have a say in the direction of the Democratic Party, and you haven’t voted, don’t miss your chance.

A Republican Congressman from Tennessee’s District 7 resigned to take a shady job, and there’s an election to fill it. Special elections are low turnout affairs where anything goes. A win here would tighten party balance in Congress at a moment when it feels like everything is on fire. This will be national.

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First, Democrats have to nominate somebody. That election is Wednesday, Oct. 7. If you are anywhere to the left of Donald Trump, you should vote in the Democratic primary with your whole heart. We have great candidates in State Reps. Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell. Darden Copeland is also running.

Primaries matter a lot

MAGA’s rightward march means the Democratic coalition now includes everyone from AOC to David French. That’s an awful lot to hold together.

But “moderate vs. progressive” is not the widest crack in our coalition. More like: Is the administration fascist, and what does that require of us? Should we face that head on, or hope it blows over? I have my thoughts, but for the purposes of this primary, we need to settle that debate before the general election. If you care about the answer…the election is Tuesday, Oct. 7.

Not every Democrat wanted to have this primary. It’s reasonable to think having a nominee who can skip the primary—less spending, more lead time for the general—is a good thing, but I disagree. Democratic voters have a low opinion of the Democratic Party right now. We needed this time for candidates to speak directly to Democrats, and they needed this chance to give feedback.

Unfortunately in Tennessee, we have to convince Democrats to vote in the Democratic primary.

“Should I pull a Republican ballot? I think I can help the moderate.”

“No!”

1. That materially harms the Democratic Party at the state and county level. Everything a campaign does is built on top of public voter data, mostly voting history. If you’re goofing around and throwing off the count, it kills interest in Tennessee from D.C., saps momentum from the party and excludes you from candidates communications. Eventually, you’ll be off our list and convinced the party doesn’t exist in Tennessee, and your phone will be full of MAGA shit. Democratic voters, voting Democratic on a regular basis, really is a prerequisite for having a viable party.

2. What does the data say? Is crossing over effective? Maybe locally, but not statewide. Using the Democratic Party’s internal database to check public data, I looked for the number of people who voted in both the 2022 Republican primary and the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. That should approximate the number of people who wanted a say in major primaries on both sides. Not a perfect measure, but it’s the best I’ve got. In 2022, the moderate-coded Republican lost statewide, and the margin was far beyond the estimated crossover Democrats. In a 2022 local primary for State Senate, the win margin was about half of the estimated crossover vote, so it could have mattered. But in this case, the “moderate” was the Senate Majority Leader. Replacing him with a dumbass might have helped the Democrats more than keeping a power broker in place.

3. This isn’t 1960, and Republicans aren’t moderating to earn your vote. Out of the Republicans running in CD-7, one was arrested, convicted and pardoned by Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. Two of the front-runners voted against legal protections for IVF treatment and contraception. They are all for mass deportation, dealing harm to LGBTQ+ people and will never vote for a single gun control measure, ever. You’re voting on whether to get punched or kicked.

Aftyn Behn is the Democrat with the best shot at winning the general election.

I like each of the state lawmakers who are running. I could make a positive case for Aftyn Behn, Vincent Dixie and Bo Mitchell. In fairness, Cook Political Report disagrees with me. I don’t want to end up on a list, but I have serious doubts about Darden Copeland as a member of Congress. As a long-time corporate lobbyist who is self-funding, he’s a walking conflict of interest. His message is appealing, but I get the sense that he bought it. All four are preferable to Gino Bulso.

Rep. Aftyn Behn stands out here as a strong contender for a few reasons:

1. Special elections are about turnout. The No. 1 job of any nominee is to tell your people there’s an election. Convincing someone to change on today’s issues is next to impossible. She’s put the most miles on her shoes as an organizer, and has contacts in every county in the district from her time leading Indivisible Tennessee.

2. Attention wins elections. Ask Kamala Harris: it’s more important than money. Constructing reality out of paid advertisements is not something that works anymore. To win, you have to have the skills of an influencer and the ability to drive the algorithm. You have to live in your opponent’s head rent-free, and you have to be a good TV or podcast guest. Aftyn has the gut for this. If you’ve heard of David Byrd, it’s because of her.

3. Persuasion works best if your base is mobilized. It’s very hard to win on persuasion alone. You can’t get volunteers if no one is excited. You can’t persuade people if it looks like nobody cares about what you do. Tennessee Democrats desperately need an election where we have an active grassroots base. That’s visible from one campaign, but not the rest. I’m not making this up.

4. The main argument against Aftyn is that she is “too left.” I guess that makes sense if you’re Chuck Todd. In reality, a record on cutting grocery taxes, pot for potholes and fighting corporate interests could resonate with MAGA.

More than anything, I’m tired. I’ve been involved in Democratic politics in some capacity since 2012. I’ve followed closely. I’ve won and I’ve lost. I’ve seen and tried it all, and the traditional playbook—poll-tested language and down-home demeanor—isn’t working. It has been tried so many times. People still swear by it, but if it worked, we’d have a blue state.

Our best shot at winning something in Tennessee is doing something different. The norm is a lot of moderating and a lot of crossover voting. Count me in no matter what, but I think it’s time to try something else.

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