Too often when campaigns face cold, hard data showing a tough road ahead, they turn a blind eye. It’s one of the reasons Democrats got to where we are today. Our campaign is different.

That’s why we’re reaching out to you today. We’re going to tell you the truth about what the data is showing in our race to elect Mikie Sherrill as the next governor of New Jersey. And we’re going to tell you what we’re going to do to stop Republicans from flipping New Jersey red this year.

And then, if you’re all in on beating Jack Ciattarelli and electing Democrats up and down the ballot, we’re going to ask you to pitch in what you can to help us put that plan into action.

Here’s an unvarnished look at what the data tells us:

→Polling. We won’t sugarcoat it. An independent poll shows Mikie deadlocked with her opponent, 43% to 43% — with more than enough undecided voters to swing the outcome either way. Another poll showed her with just a 2% lead, functionally a tied race.

And that’s not even taking into account the possibility that the polls could be underestimating Republicans, as they have in several recent elections. We need to campaign like we’re behind — because we may well be.

→Recent elections. The 2024 presidential race in New Jersey was decided by less than 6% The last governor’s race here? Decided by just 3%. Recent election results and recent polls all tell the same story: New Jersey is a battleground state.

This is the first governor’s election in the country since Trump came back into office. The nation will be watching this race to see if Democrats have what it takes to win — and this is a must-win race.

→Fundraising. Donald Trump is doing everything he can to get Jack Ciattarelli elected — including rallying his supporters across the country to pour money into false ads attacking Mikie Sherrill. We can’t let these attacks go unchecked. We need to mobilize our supporters to get the word out NOW.

Here’s what this all means: we are in an incredibly competitive race, and we will only win it if we work night and day to reach out to as many voters as humanly possible. And that’s exactly what we plan to do.

And unlike our opponent, we aren’t relying on right-wing billionaires and Trump lackeys to write us big checks. We’re powered by people like you — hardworking folks who can pitch in what they can, when they can.

We have one month left in this race, and we’re going to be working non-stop to spread Mikie’s vision for New Jersey to every undecided voter, and get every single one of our supporters to the polls. If you’re with us, then we’re counting on you to chip in whatever feels right to help us make it to the finish line — and elect New Jersey Democrats up and down the ticket.

Thank you,

Mikie Sherrill HQ