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Weekend Reads
Today Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is electing a new leader, who will almost certainly become the country’s prime minister—a decision that will have significant implications for the United States.
Read below for key insights from Paul Sracic and William Chou on possible election outcomes and why they matter to Washington. Or, read their full policy brief here.
Hudson also reached out to LDP leadership candidates to share their foreign policy platforms. Read the candidates’ responses here.
Key Insights
1. The LDP’s electoral struggles threaten to damage US-Japan security cooperation.
The US-Japan alliance is essential to maintaining regional security and countering China’s multidimensional aggression. Economic and political instability could compel Japan to prioritize domestic consolidation over foreign commitments, delaying joint defense initiatives. And prolonged LDP turmoil could result in policy paralysis, diminishing Japan’s global role.
2. The recent US-Japan trade deal is an important step. But it has electoral implications for the LDP.
Averting higher tariffs is a diplomatic victory for outgoing LDP Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who pushed to increase Japanese investment in the US to stave off the White House’s punitive measures. This might bolster the party’s image among business leaders and exporters, stabilizing economic sentiment in favor of the LDP. But opposition parties have criticized the agreement, arguing that it exacerbates economic woes such as inflation and the yen’s weakness. No LDP or opposition candidate is likely to seek to renegotiate the deal once in office. But debates over the agreement reflect the public’s unhappiness with rising costs of living.
3. Strong, stable Japanese leadership is important to US interests.
The upcoming LDP leadership election is a critical inflection point that will test the resilience of Japan’s long-dominant party and, by extension, the stability of the US-Japan alliance. Ultimately, the stability and decisiveness of Japan’s domestic leadership are the most vital guarantors of a strong alliance, and US policymakers should prepare to navigate a period of potential instability as Japan searches for a path toward renewed political and economic strength.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
Hudson asked LDP leadership candidates to describe their visions for US-Japan relations, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, the Japanese economy, and more.
In a Hudson policy memo, William Chou examines the terms of the US-Japan trade agreement and identifies how Washington and Tokyo can mutually benefit from the $550 billion investment fund.
“When you think about America’s future . . . a partnership with Japan is a key part of our security,” said Senator David McCormick (R-PA) at Hudson. He explained the importance of the US-Japan relationship and how Nippon Steel’s investment in U.S. Steel furthers both nations’ interests.
Watch the event, listen to the podcast, or read the transcript here.
