Watch now (18 mins) | He's in freefall in swing states and has alienated independents.
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Voters Blame Trump for the Shutdown | Behind the Numbers with Rick & Andrew Wilson

He's in freefall in swing states and has alienated independents.

Rick Wilson and Andrew Wilson
Oct 3
 
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The shutdown isn’t a shared burden — it’s a lopsided collapse landing squarely on Trump and Republicans. Poll after poll puts the blame at nearly 50–22 among independents, a gap wide enough to leave Democrats standing firm without fear of backlash. That margin alone explains why the memes and scapegoats aren’t working; when independents tilt against you two-to-one, the spin machine is already broken. Numbers like that don’t fade with another press conference.

The economic story is no better. Tariffs once sold as debt-busting have instead gutted farmers and bled into consumer prices, with approval on inflation among independents sinking to 14 percent. Even inside the base, support on cost of living has dropped to 57 percent, a disastrous showing compared to other GOP litmus tests. Every missed contract and rotting crop is another reminder that trade policy wasn’t strategy, it was sabotage. And voters are connecting the dots in real time.

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Nowhere is the damage clearer than in the battleground states Trump once called his firewall. In Pennsylvania; he’s down 13 points, Georgia 11, Nevada 12, North Carolina 9, Wisconsin 10, and Michigan 12 — margins that erase his 2024 playbook and replace it with electoral freefall. Approval with Black voters in Pennsylvania has cratered to four percent, effectively zero. What was once pitched as a permanent “realignment” now looks more like coalition collapse.

The numbers spell it out: a president clinging to spectacle while the core pillars of his support erode beneath him. Shutdown politics, trade fantasy, and collapsing demographics aren’t separate stories, they’re threads of the same unraveling. Trump can call it winning, he can slap it on a meme, he can bluff another “deal” — but voters are measuring their lives against his failures. In every poll, on every chart, the decline keeps accelerating.

Tune in to catch all the numbers that matter, now!

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A guest post by
Andrew Wilson
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