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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

3 THINGS TO WATCH AS WE SLIDE TOWARD A POSSIBLE SHUTDOWN
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Congress and the president are now barreling toward a government shutdown ([link removed]) , beginning tonight just after midnight.

Democrats are refusing to back Republicans’ bill to fund the federal government for another seven weeks, unless it includes some key health care provisions. ([link removed]) Republicans are refusing to seriously discuss Democrats’ demands, including an extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies, while there is a threat of a shutdown.

First, a quick FAQ about what is likely to happen.
* What is affected in a shutdown? Most government agencies are affected during this likely shutdown, because they get discretionary funding ([link removed]) from Congress. That funding is running out due to congressional inaction.
* Which workers stay on the job? Each agency determines which functions are “essential” and must keep going even in a shutdown. This varies by agency. Active-duty military members are considered essential and keep working, without pay. In past shutdown plans, hiring and training for air traffic controllers were halted, food safety efforts were reduced and many national parks went unstaffed.
* How many workers will be furloughed? Workers deemed “non-essential” will be furloughed, directed to stay home and stop work during a shutdown. Which workers? Again, up to the Trump administration. ([link removed]) As The New York Times put it, agencies have been relatively slow to post their contingency plans. ([link removed])
* What about Social Security and Medicare? Those programs are funded separately, by “mandatory funding.” Benefits and Social Security checks continue without interruption. ([link removed])

Now, three things we are watching as we slide into a shutdown.

The calendar. The House is set to be out of Washington the rest of the week. A key date after that is Oct. 10, when federal workers will miss their first paychecks. ([link removed])

That is a potential pressure point in the shutdown, with increasing real world stakes that could lead to one or both parties compromising and moving to end the shutdown.

Every Senate Democrat. While Republicans have a bare margin in the House, they did manage to pass a short-term funding bill.

To get that, or any funding bill, to the president, requires 60 votes. To get there, Senate Republicans need seven or eight Democrats who voted no earlier this month to flip to yes.

If the shutdown goes long, pressure on Senate Democrats to join with Republicans will grow. Republicans are counting on this, and House Democrats fear their Senate counterparts caving.

Moderates and aisle-crossers. Each party has a group of moderates who are generally in line with their leaders’ strategy but also uncomfortable with that strategy.

For Democrats, this includes some swing state and frontline members who hope to keep President Donald Trump as a central problem and don’t want to be blamed for a long shutdown. Among Republicans, this includes members, like Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who are concerned about expiring ACA subsidies. ([link removed])

[link removed]
Watch the segment in the player above.
While it is hard to see a way out of the shutdown right now, one path could be through a bipartisan group of lawmakers who form some new ideas about how to get this done. Trump will always be a key factor, but moderates could be a force that jump starts a way out.

Stay up to date on the latest about the shutdown. You can follow me on X. ([link removed])

WE’D LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

Are you an employee or contractor with the federal government who is concerned about a possible shutdown? PBS News wants to hear from you as part of our reporting. Share your story with us here. ([link removed]) Your information will be kept confidential.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Government shutdown appears unavoidable ([link removed]) after White House meeting fails to produce deal.
* One Big Question: The last shutdown was on Trump's watch in his first administration. How is the White House looking at the situation now? NPR’s Tamara Keith and Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: What’s in the plan to end the Gaza war proposed by Trump and Netanyahu? ([link removed]) Read the full 20-point proposal here. ([link removed])
* Perspectives: How artists and musicians are responding to Trump’s second term. ([link removed])

POLL: WHO’S TO BLAME FOR THE SHUTDOWN?

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In the new poll, a plurality — 38% — say Republicans, who control the White House and both houses of Congress, would be mostly to blame. Photo by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

By Matt Loffman
Senior Elections Producer

Americans are divided on which party to blame if funding lapses after midnight tonight, according to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll ([link removed]) . Yet a plurality — 38% — say Republicans, who control the White House and both houses of Congress, would be most at fault.

In the new poll ([link removed]) , 27% would blame Democrats, while 31% believe both parties would be equally to blame.

While majorities of both Democratic and Republican poll respondents unsurprisingly blamed the other party, 41% of independents said both parties share the blame equally. Another 36% of independents would blame Republicans, significantly more than the 19% who would blame Democrats.

Here’s a look at more key poll takeaways.

Should members of Congress compromise or stand on principle?

Americans are evenly divided on whether members of Congress should compromise (50%) or stand on principle even if it may lead to a shutdown (49%).
* Democrats are split, with 52% in favor of compromise and 47% who support holding out, within the margin of error ([link removed]) and further complicating political calculations for party leadership.
* Independents are similarly slightly more likely to want to see compromise to avoid a shutdown, while a narrow majority of Republicans say leaders should dig in.

Trump approval

Half of Americans — 53% — disapprove of the job Trump is doing in his second term so far, including 46% of people who strongly disapprove. Yet support for the president has remained largely steady since he reentered the Oval Office, with 41% approving of his job performance.

How voters feel about Democrats and Republicans right now

Thirty-seven percent approve of the job Republicans are doing while 55% disapprove, holding roughly steady from this summer. This level of support is the highest the party has received in Marist surveys over the last 14 years.

Democrats fare significantly worse. Twenty-six percent of registered voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing as the minority party, while 64% disapprove.

That low support for Democrats is largely driven by their own voters being closely divided — 48% approve and 44% disapprove — on the party’s job performance in Congress.

Overall, support for Democrats is at its lowest point since July 2018, during Trump’s first term. Despite the high disapproval at the time, Democrats picked up 40 seats during the midterm elections that year to retake control of the House of Representatives.

TRUMP SAYS CITIES ARE ‘TRAINING GROUNDS’ FOR MILITARY
[link removed]
Watch the clip in the player above.
By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital

President Donald Trump told the nation’s top military leaders Tuesday to use some American cities as “training grounds” for the military ([link removed]) , as he repeated threats to deploy National Guard troops to various states across the country.

“I told [Defense Secretary] Pete [Hegseth], we should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military — National Guard,” said Trump, who spoke after Hegseth addressed the hundreds of generals and admirals in the crowd. The military leaders were ordered to travel from their posts all over the world to Quantico, Virginia, for the rare gathering.

On unauthorized immigration and crime, Trump told the rows of military leaders that the U.S. is facing “a war from within.”

[link removed]

Top U.S. military brass attend an unusual meeting Tuesday convened by the defense secretary in Quantico, Virginia. Photo by Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Both leaders’ remarks focused on how Trump and his officials are reshaping the Defense Department and ridding the agency of what Hegseth described as “woke garbage.”

Trump said cities such as Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and New York are unsafe places run by “radical left Democrats.” The president has used this refrain to justify his expansion of federal immigration enforcement and National Guard into U.S. cities.

Although violent crime continues to drop in the U.S. ([link removed]) , Americans believe that crime has increased in the country, though they don’t broadly support Trump’s tactics ([link removed]) to tackle it, according to one recent poll. Nor do Trump’s misleading claims about crime ([link removed]) in certain cities, like the nation’s capital, accurately capture the full picture.

Trump added that troops could soon be deployed to Chicago “very soon.”

Here are five other moments from Tuesday’s event:
* Hegseth said if “no women qualify for some combat jobs, so be it.” ([link removed])
* Hegseth said the word “hazing” has been weaponized ([link removed]) and attacked how complaints over toxic behavior ([link removed]) in the ranks are reported — not toxic behavior itself.
* Hegseth told military leaders who dislike his new approach to “do the honorable and resign.” ([link removed])
* “We want to have no wars,” ([link removed]) Trump said, while again claiming that he’s been a leading peacemaker ([link removed]) in global conflict.
* Trump touted U.S. nuclear power ([link removed]) , saying “there are two N-words and you can't use either of them.”

THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION

[link removed]
Watch Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s full remarks in the player above.

By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth opened his speech ([link removed]) to top military brass Tuesday with a reminder of the Trump administration’s push to restore the original name of the Department of Defense.

“Good morning, and welcome to the War Department, because the era of the Department of Defense is over,” he said.

Though President Donald Trump signed an executive order ([link removed]) in September aiming to restore the name, the move still requires congressional approval.

George Washington signed a law that established the War Department in 1789 ([link removed]) , months after the U.S. Constitution was ratified. The department held onto that name for about 160 years, before another president changed the name.

Our question: Which president signed a law that included rebranding the War Department as the Defense Department?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Which city hosted the first U.N. General Assembly?

The answer: London. ([link removed]) While the U.S. has hosted the U.N. General Assembly for decades, the United Nations convened the first session of the global meeting in 1946 in London.

Congratulations to our winners: Steven Greek and Dale Alekel!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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