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Dear John,
YouGov’s latest MRP shows Reform UK on the brink of governing with an outright majority, but only on a minority of the vote.
That’s a shocking 311 seats, or 48% of Parliament, on just 27% of the vote. That’s a direct result of Reform UK winning the vast majority of their seats on a small minority of the vote – making them unrepresentative both locally and nationally.
This isn’t real democracy. It’s a political system in decay.
When millions of voices are ignored, disillusionment grows. That’s the fuel Nigel Farage and Reform UK are running on. Exploiting frustration with a system that rewards narrow wins instead of broad support.
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But there is a viable way to fix the system, and it starts with Proportional Representation (PR).
PR would:
* Stop Farage and Reform UK (or anyone else, for that matter) from winning power on a tiny share of the vote.
* Make every vote count equally, giving people a reason to believe in politics again.
* Clear the way for real solutions to the issues that matter most – such as fixing the NHS, tackling the climate emergency, and ending the cost of living crisis.
Disillusionment is Nigel Farage’s fuel. Recent polling shows that no party leader in the UK has a net positive popularity. The vast majority of the country now say that Britain is worse than it was ten years ago.
When people feel let down by politics, they look for the parties who are speaking to that frustration. Who offer easy answers and simplistic, sweeping solutions.
Nigel Farage and Reform UK are feeding that disillusionment and trying to channel it for their own gain. If we don’t repair and strengthen our democratic systems, disillusionment – and their support – will only grow.
We can’t pretend it will sort itself out.
POWER THE PUSHBACK ([link removed])
** What’s at stake
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* Seats could swing with tiny margins, with an electoral system which rewards these tiny margins, not broad appeal.
* Weak mandates tend toward chaos, populist pressure, and democratic erosion.
* Loss of trust: if people believe regular politics cannot deliver, they’ll continue to turn to greater and greater extremes.
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** What we must do
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1. Boost democratic resilience
Work on structural fixes: electoral reform, stronger safeguards, better education, transparency in funding. The system shouldn’t collapse under pressure.
2. Mobilise disillusioned voices
Many who lean Reform UK do so out of frustration, not fanaticism. Engage them, listen, debate – not write them off. We need to draw them back into the fold of constructive politics.
3. Counter disinformation and oversimplification
Populist forces thrive on binary narratives and conspiracies. We must sharpen our communications: facts, clarity, emotional resonance. And continue to call our Nigel Farage’s lies.
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YouGov’s model is another reminder of our new reality: Nigel Farage and Reform UK are no longer back-bench insurgents. They are very real challengers on the threshold of power.
Let’s not let pessimism, disillusion, or quiet resignation hand the stage to extremist voices that thrive on our broken politics.
We can build a democracy strong enough to push back. But only if we start before the crisis becomes irreversible.
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Thank you for your support.
All the best,
Mark
Mark Kieran
CEO, Open Britain
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*What is an MRP? A Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) is a highly accurate method of projecting constituency level results using polling data and demographics. It has been successful in projecting results in the past few General Elections with great accuracy. We should take it seriously.
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