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In what has become a pattern, the Supreme Court’s abbreviated order was technically just a delay in response to an “emergency” appeal. The Court allowed Trump to withhold the funds, and disingenuously said that its order was not a definitive ruling on the underlying constitutional question. Of course, after the fiscal year ends on September 30, authorization to spend the withheld funds disappears.
Armed with this court order, Trump could cynically agree to Democrats’ demands and then just impound whatever money he doesn’t like. Any budget deal would be a farce, and Trump would have once again nullified Congress. Cuts can’t be restored if they are unspent, after all.
As citizens felt the impact of the cuts, however, that ploy could harm Republicans in Congress. It would not be the first time; Trump cares more about the thrill of exercising his own power.
Alternatively, Trump could just stonewall and hope that Democrats take the fall for any government shutdown. His plan, revealed in a public letter by the Office of Management and Budget, is to threaten another round of mass layoffs of public workers, which would affect everything from Social Security to the National Park Service and other public-facing agencies that are already stretched thin. Trump has already been shutting down the government selectively and can decide what to keep open.
Yet another variant is a brief shutdown, with the high drama of continuing negotiations and then a compromise restoration of some health funding. That would blur responsibility for the cuts and then allow both sides to claim victory. It may well be in Trump’s interest to let this go at least one more round, before agreeing to a deal and then claiming credit as the great dealmaker.
It’s a fine fiscal mess. Only one thing is certain. Trump will do whatever he thinks will be best, not for his party or his country, but for Trump.
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