Designing a Ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War

A ceasefire will be an essential part of any negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war. With deep mistrust on both sides, what will it take to reach an agreement that sticks?

In a new report, RAND researchers explore this challenge and outline practical recommendations for working toward a durable peace in Ukraine.

Here are their top-line recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders involved in the details of a future ceasefire agreement:

• Start designing the ceasefire long before negotiations begin.
• Negotiate big-picture geopolitical questions in parallel with, but on a separate track from, ceasefire talks.
• Design a formal ceasefire agreement that clearly defines roles and responsibilities, protocols, and operating procedures.
• Ensure that the agreement includes demilitarized zones along the front line, confidence-building measures, dispute-resolution mechanisms, third-party monitoring capabilities, and accountability mechanisms.
• Include a robust remote-sensing infrastructure to help monitor the roughly 2,000-mile conflict line and ensure that any interference with sensors is treated as a violation.
• Add mechanisms that allow for political-level oversight of implementation and possibly specified conditions that would trigger renegotiation.

The authors emphasize that, although political will is necessary to make an agreement work, it is not enough to ensure ceasefire success. The design of the deal matters.

“Poorly designed agreements can, in fact, lessen political investment in a peace process,” they write. “Well-designed agreements can reduce incentives to renew fighting, mitigate uncertainty, and help prevent accidents, therefore contributing to the maintenance of peace.”