Iran Regime's Long Game: Today Diplomacy, Tomorrow Retaliation
by Majid Rafizadeh • September 20, 2025 at 5:00 am
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has made it clear that if biting UN sanctions are reinstated by the West, there will be no nuclear inspections.
Whenever the Iranian regime begins to speak the language of cooperation and compromise, it is not because its leaders have chosen moderation out of principle or newfound goodwill.
Iran's leadership is using the threat of non-cooperation as leverage: it is signaling that nuclear inspections will be blocked and compliance will be withheld unless the West grants concessions or delays reinstating sanctions. The leadership in Tehran understands that failure to prevent this could most likely spell the beginning of the end for its rule. That is why it has chosen to play the card of conditional diplomacy and intimidation.
What Tehran seeks now is exactly what it received a decade ago during the Obama years: time and relief. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action "nuclear deal" was portrayed by the West as a breakthrough for peace and nonproliferation. In reality, it offered the Islamic Republic a lifeline. Billions of dollars were unlocked through sanctions relief, oil revenues surged, and access to the global financial system was restored.
Rather than moderating, Iran used those resources to arm Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and other proxies.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has never responded to anything but credible force. The destruction of its nuclear facilities this summer proved this, and the knowledge that further strikes could follow is one of the few things restraining the regime's ambitions. Verification, not promises, must be the standard. Inspections should be immediate, intrusive and unconditional. Any attempt by Tehran to delay, restrict or politicize access must be met with swift consequences.
Its threats regarding nuclear inspections make it clear that Tehran is trying to force the West into concessions while maintaining the ability to obstruct verification. This is the old game it has played time and again. The West cannot afford to be deceived once more. The victims of 1983, 1994, 2001 and October 7, 2023 stand as a reminder of what happens when Iran is given space to recover.
The snapback sanctions must proceed, military pressure must remain, and the West must deny the regime the "oxygen" it seeks.
Iran's threats demonstrate that its "cooperation" comes with strings attached, designed to intimidate and extract concessions. Do not fall again for its trap. Do not let the devil get up.
The Iranian regime has suddenly shifted its tone in recent weeks. It is now -- sort of -- presenting itself as willing to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Headlines have been dominated by announcements that Tehran is – maybe -- prepared to allow inspectors back into its nuclear facilities, to resume talks with Western powers, and to abide by stricter oversight of its atomic activities.
