RALEIGH — For the first time since October of 2024, the majority of voters in North Carolina say they believe the United States is headed in the wrong direction. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, conducted by Harper Polling, 53.7% of voters said they believe things in America are headed on the "wrong track" — a four-point increase from last month, and a 10.6-point increase from November. By comparison, 42.3% of voters believe the country is headed in the "right direction," and 4% are unsure. 

This poll of 600 likely North Carolina voters was conducted just four days after the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Approximately 95% of North Carolinians shared concern about the rise in political violence in America. Nearly all North Carolinians (93.4%) said they believe that violence or assassination attempts against political leaders or public figures are never acceptable. A small minority (3.8%) said that violence or assassination could be acceptable. Registered Democrats were more likely to respond that political violence can be acceptable (8%) than Republicans (<1%). 

“Despite some truly abhorrent opinions shared on social media and late-night television about Charlie Kirk’s passing, it is comforting to know that folks almost unanimously condemn political violence,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “Our great country is built on the principle of freedom of speech, and that freedom cannot co-exist with an acceptance of political violence.” 

A greater percentage (20.3%) of voters said they consider it acceptable to confront or harass elected officials or public figures they disagree with when encountering them in personal settings, such as at a restaurant or while shopping. However, three-fourths of voters (74.9%) said they found negatively approaching politicians in public to be unacceptable behavior. Again, registered Democrats were more likely to find it acceptable to negatively approach a public figure (30%) than Republicans (5%). 

When asked who deserves the most blame for political violence in America, 34.8% of voters said politicians and elected officials, 26.8% said the media, 16% said activist groups and protest movements, 14.1% said social media companies, and 8.2% were unsure. 

This is also the first Carolina Journal Poll to be conducted following the fatal stabbing of Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte. Voters are narrowly split on their confidence in the safety of public transportation in North Carolina. A slim plurality (39.1%) said they are confident in the safety of their local public transport, while 37.7% said they are not confident. These results are close enough to fall within the poll's ±3.98% margin of error. Charlotteans were the least confident (32%) in public transport safety, while Asheville-area residents were some of the most confident (52%). 

Similarly, a small plurality of voters (48.5%) expressed confidence that North Carolina effectively prevents violent criminals from harming the public, while 44.7% were not confident. Self-identified liberals were more likely to express confidence in their safety (70%) than conservatives (30%). 

When asked about the cause of violent crime, 25.8% said the source was "judges giving light sentences and releasing repeat criminal offenders," 15.6% said economic hardship or poverty, 15.5% said mental illness and lack of treatment, 11.3% said poor parenting and family breakdown, 11% said drug and substance abuse, 7.8% said "prosecutors not prosecuting criminals for the crimes that they commit," 4.2% said gangs and organized crime, 1.9% lack of police presence, 0.6% homelessness, and 6.1% were unsure. 

An overwhelming majority (73.7%) of voters said they support holding judges responsible when they release offenders who go on to commit violent crimes such as murder, while 19.4% said they opposed that idea. There is greater enthusiasm among the supporters of holding judges responsible than among the opposition, with 50.5% of voters stating they "strongly support" the idea, and only 8.6% saying they "strongly oppose" it. 

The survey also included a question on who is responsible for the current state of the American economy. A majority (52%) said President Donald Trump is responsible, 28.9% assigned responsibility to Joe Biden, 10.4% said neither, and 8.6% were unsure. As for Trump's job approval ratings, North Carolinians are split down the middle, with 49.4% of voters expressing approval, and 49.0% expressing disapproval. Only 1.6% of voters were unsure. 

Significantly more voters (18.3%) are unsure of their opinion on Gov. Josh Stein's job performance. His disapproval rating remains low (31.1%), and his approval rating remains unchanged from last month at 50.5%. Stein's predecessor, Roy Cooper, maintains his early lead over former GOP Chairman Michael Whatley in the 2026 US Senate race. While Cooper is still ahead in this poll (46.1%), his lead over Whatley (41.9%) has thinned to 4.2 points, as compared to last month's 8.2-point lead. 

When asked what issues matter most to them in the 2026 Senate race, 29.1% said cost of living/inflation, 17.9% said the candidate’s political party, 10.3% said immigration/border security, 10.2% said jobs/economy, 8.1% said healthcare, 4.9% said crime, 3.5% said education, 2.6% said abortion, 0.6% said energy/electricity bill, 8.4% said something else, and 4.4% were unsure. 

Unlike the Senate race, Republicans are slightly ahead when asked about contests for the General Assembly. When asked who they would support for the state legislature, 46% of voters said they would vote Republican, compared to 44.4% who would vote for a Democrat. 

“North Carolina isn’t likely to end its history of vote-splitting any time soon,” continued Bryson. “Many political candidates won’t be able to ride on their party affiliation when midterms come around next year. They’re going to have to independently earn those votes.” 

The North Carolina General Assembly adjourned for the summer without approving a budget. When asked to select the two areas that would be a top priority for increased funding, a majority (54.4%) selected K-12 public schools, while 44.6% chose Medicaid/healthcare, 35% chose public safety, 17.9% chose economic development incentives, 8% chose something else, 6.3% chose transportation, 6% chose the savings reserve or rainy-day fund, 3% chose Opportunities Scholarship/Education Savings Accounts, and 3% said they were unsure. 

With a majority of voters expressing a desire to increase funding for public K-12 schools, it is noteworthy that 85.8% of voters expressed concern about the long-term impacts of the pandemic on student achievement. 

The second most-popular budget priority was Medicaid/healthcare. When asked what their preferred course of action would be if Congress reduced the federal government's share of funding for Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, 32.7% of voters said North Carolina should add work requirements, 17.2% said raise taxes to pay for Medicaid expansion, 10.6% said cut other state programs for Medicaid expansion, 9% said add premiums or co-pays, 7.7% said end expansion, and 22.8% were unsure. 

When asked about a general Medicaid work requirement, 71.9% of voters said they would support a work requirement for able-bodied, childless adults (with exemptions for disability, caregiving, or pregnancy). Only 15.4% opposed work requirements. Support for work requirements is stronger than opposition, with 49.2% of voters saying they "strongly" support work requirements and only 7.7% of voters "strongly" opposing. 

Turning to energy, 44.1% of North Carolinians believe the top priority for the state's energy future should be keeping prices affordable, 24% said expanding renewable energy, 23.6% said ensuring reliable energy, and 4.3% said reducing carbon emissions.