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⏱️ 5-minute readA Blockbuster EntranceIn true Hollywood fashion, Arnold Schwarzenegger strode onto the stage at the University of Southern California yesterday, microphone in hand, ready to deliver a political takedown worthy of his movie persona. The date? September 15—fittingly, the International Day of Democracy. Hundreds of students, phones aloft, captured the moment as the bodybuilder-turned-governor-turned-global icon didn’t hold back. His target: Proposition 50, the ballot measure hatched by Governor Gavin Newsom, which is a cynical play to gerrymander a bunch of Republicans out of their seats. For those tuning in late, Proposition 50 isn’t your garden-variety ballot tweak. It’s a memorable election showdown set for November 4, engineered by Democrats to sidestep the state’s independent Citizens Redistricting Commission—a body Schwarzenegger fought tooth and nail to create during his governorship. Under Prop 50, lawmakers redraw House districts through 2030, flipping five Republican-held seats to Democrats. Newsom frames it as a xxxxxx against Trump’s “power grab.” Schwarzenegger sees it as politicians taking power back from the people. Schwarzenegger’s Legacy Under FireSchwarzenegger didn’t mince words, recounting his improbable rise from Austrian iron-pumper to Sacramento powerhouse with the flair of someone who thrives on impossible odds. “When history has shown it’s impossible, that’s when I wake up,” he quipped, nodding to the early flops of his redistricting crusade. In 2008 and 2010, voters finally greenlit independent commissions for state legislative and congressional lines—reforms born from his frustration with gerrymandered districts locked in self-serving politicians and gridlock. He spotted four ex-commissioners in the front row, giving them a shoutout before driving the point home: Prop 50 would “dismantle this independent commission” and hand the pen back to politicians behind closed doors. “They want to get rid of it under the auspices [that] we have to fight Trump,” he thundered. “Doesn’t make any sense to me—that because we have to fight Trump, to become Trump.” The line is already gold for the No on 50 crowd. There is no doubt that high-resolution footage of this event was captured, and we will see it in No on 50 advertising sometime soon! The event buzzed with that celebrity pull. Students lined up early to see him speak, while College Democrats outside hawked Yes on 50 flyers. My longtime friend Amy Thoma Tan, spokesperson for the opposition committee, was there working it: “His appeal as a global superstar transcends politics and ideology.” Schwarzenegger hasn’t formally joined their war chest, but his blunt “vote no” gave them prime soundbites for voter contact as soon as possible. Polling Punch: Why Schwarzenegger’s Voice Could Tip the ScalesFresh data shows why Schwarzenegger’s move matters. According to a Harper Polling survey summarized in my Aug. 29 column, the race is razor-thin. When framed as a Trump counterpunch, 51.9% back the redraw, with 41% opposed. But pit the arguments head-to-head, and it tightens: 46.5% side with Newsom’s mid-decade move, versus 41.2% backing Schwarzenegger’s defense of the commission—12.3% undecided. What gives Schwarzenegger the edge is his broad appeal. His 48.7% favorability dwarfs the 26.6% unfavorability, especially among the 47.7% of respondents who are Independents or moderates. In a state where Republicans make up just 25% of the electorate and the rest lean blue but are wary of extremes, that matters. As one student pressed him on “existential” national threats like the Supreme Court or National Guard deployments, Schwarzenegger waved it off: Don’t get sidetracked.” This isn’t about D.C. drama, he said, but about “weakening democracy in California” by stripping power from voters. A Call Against PolarizationThe timing of this event, on the International Day of Democracy, added weight to his message. He warned of the dangers of a divided political landscape, pointing to forces like social media and partisan agendas that pull us apart. “We’re getting hit from so many angles,” he cautioned, urging the crowd to reject division and support a system where power remains with the people. It’s a centrist stance from a former governor who’s long argued for breaking gridlock by moving away from extremes. That positioning makes Schwarzenegger uniquely effective at reaching moderate Democrats and independent voters who may not identify with Republicans but recoil at the idea of politicians rewriting maps for partisan advantage. In their eyes, his appeal is less about party and more about principle, which could prove decisive in a close race. So, Does It Matter?This is not a small thing, a mid-decade effort to snow voters into voting for a cynical, partisan play (so much so that these maps happen to create safe Democratic House seats that the Senate President, Assembly Speaker, and the Assembly Speaker Emeritus could all run for. Schwarzenegger will tell you that bypassing the commission risks a slippery slope where every cycle brings map mayhem, amplifying the voices of the fringes over the forgotten middle. He would tell you that voters are supposed to pick their politicians, not vice versa. This is not going to be a runaway vote. It will be close though that the “Terminator” lending his celebrity persona to the No on 50 campaign could very well make the difference. Look for commercials soon. Newsom vs. Trump is a good matchup for California’s Governor. But Newsom vs. Schwarzenegger — who’s betting against the action hero? You’re currently a free subscriber to So, Does It Matter? California Politics! For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. See how much more you get with an inexpensive, paid subscription, but clicking the button below! Support me in providing hard-hitting, clear-eyed analysis of California politics. I am beholding to no one, and sugar-coat nothing! |