Precinct still has not been taken back                                                              
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June 30, 2020

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Second fatal shooting in Chaz as defund the police turns up the volume
A second fatal shooting has occurred in the democratic republic of the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) in downtown Seattle as protesters nationwide increase their calls to defund police departments everywhere amid expanding occupy demonstrations in more cities. After the first shooting on June 20, Democratic Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan called for police to return to the area and reclaim the abandoned Third Precinct to be able to respond to emergency calls. But so far, the neighborhood has not been taken back. On June 1, President Donald Trump warned that “If a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.” In a Harvard Caps/Harris poll, 52 percent of Americans say they would support using the military to help restore order in U.S. cities. It might be time to reconsider what is the safest way to address the rebellion that has become entrenched over the past month in the wake of the murder of George Floyd by former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin.

Cartoon: Anti-Independence Day
The war on history continues.

Realclearpolitics.com: Pollster who got it right in 2016 says Michigan is a dead heat
“In 2016, Robert Cahaly was the only pollster to show Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan. His final survey in the Wolverine State projected the Republican nominee beating Hillary Clinton by two percentage points. The final margin was just 0.3% -- an outcome that almost no one except Cahaly saw coming. Cahaly’s polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania – again, he was nearly alone in projecting Trump’s narrow victory there – and thus taking the White House. Cahaly’s success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America. So it’s notable that Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%.” 


Second fatal shooting in Chaz as defund the police turns up the volume

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By Robert Romano

A second fatal shooting has occurred in the democratic republic of the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) in downtown Seattle as protesters nationwide increase their calls to defund police departments everywhere amid expanding occupy demonstrations in more cities.

After the first shooting on June 20, Democratic Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan called for police to return to the area and reclaim the abandoned Third Precinct to be able to respond to emergency calls.

But so far, the neighborhood has not been taken back.

On June 1, President Donald Trump had warned that “If a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them.”

In a Harvard Caps/Harris poll, 52 percent of Americans say they would support using the military to help restore order in U.S. cities.

However, on June 20, President Trump walked back the threat a bit at his campaign rally in Tulsa, Okla., stating, “any time you want, we'll come in” and “I may be wrong, but it's probably better for us to just watch that disaster” so that the American people can see “what radical left Democrats will do to our country.”

But now the delay is leading to deadly results. It might be time to reconsider what is the safest way to address the rebellion that has become entrenched over the past month in the wake of the murder of George Floyd by former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin.

On the issue of whether to federalize the National Guard, the President would be well within his powers to do so. Under 10 U.S. Code § 252, “Whenever the President considers that unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States in any State by the ordinary course of judicial proceedings, he may call into Federal service such of the militia of any State, and use such of the armed forces, as he considers necessary to enforce those laws or to suppress the rebellion.”

This section of law was enacted in 1792 in response to the Whiskey Rebellion. It was updated in 1795, 1807 (when the Insurrection Act replaced it), 1861 and 1956. It was used by George Washington to put down the Whiskey Rebellion, by Abraham Lincoln to wage the Civil War and by Dwight Eisenhower in 1957 when Arkansas tried to use the Arkansas National Guard to block school integration and Eisenhower federalized the Guard to enforce Brown v. Board of Education.

In 1794, Pennsylvania Governor Thomas Mifflin initially did not want to cooperate with Washington’s request to use the state militia but relented when it became clear force would be necessary. But in Lincoln and Eisenhower’s cases, neither intervention was at the request of state governors.

These cities appear more than happen to cede their streets to violent crime.

For example, Democratic New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio has been grappling with an encampment right outside City Hall that is urging $1 billion of cuts from the New York City Police Department. To placate the mob, DeBlasio has already agreed to their demands.

In the meantime, messages have been circulating among police officers urging they take a sick day on July 4, leading to rumors that police there plan on going on strike for the entire Independence Day weekend. New York State law forbids police from going on strike, hence the urging to take a sick day.

The text message being passed around stated, “NYPD cops will strike on July 4th to let the city have their independence without cops.”

While it is hard to imagine that cops would abandon the city en masse on Independence Day where their own families live, the message is clear that police officers including the NYPD do not feel like they are being supported by elected officials.

The same can be said for police departments across the country, which are now apprehensive about enforcing the law.

If allowed to continue, it could lead to a crime wave and increased murders. In New York, murders are already up 47 percent this month compared to last year.

The American people expect law and order. If police stand down or are significantly curtailed by elected leaders, this situation will only get worse as civil order breaks down.

Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.

To view online: http://dailytorch.com/2020/06/second-fatal-shooting-in-chaz-as-defund-the-police-turns-up-the-volume/


Cartoon: Anti-Independence Day

By A.F. Branco

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Click here for a higher level resolution version.


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ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured report from RealClearPolitics.com’s Tom Bevan, the pollster who called 2016 correctly, Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group says that Michigan is a dead heat between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden:

RealClearPolitics3.png

Pollster who got it right in 2016 says Michigan is a dead heat

By Tom Bevan

In 2016, Robert Cahaly was the only pollster to show Donald Trump winning the state of Michigan. His final survey in the Wolverine State projected the Republican nominee beating Hillary Clinton by two percentage points. The final margin was just 0.3% -- an outcome that almost no one except Cahaly saw coming. 

Cahaly’s polls in 2016 also showed Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania – again, he was nearly alone in projecting Trump’s narrow victory there – and thus taking the White House. Cahaly’s success continued in 2018, most conspicuously in Florida. He was one of the few pollsters whose data showed Ron DeSantis beating Andrew Gillum in the Florida gubernatorial race and Rick Scott besting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in the Senate race. Cahaly’s firm, the Trafalgar Group, has emerged from the last two political cycles as one of the most accurate polling operations in America. 

So it’s notable that Cahaly has just released his first poll of the 2020 cycle, a survey of likely voters in Michigan showing Trump trailing Joe Biden by a single point, 46%-45%.  

Last week Michigan-based pollster EPIC-MRA garnered national attention for its survey showing Biden leading by a whopping 16 points, while another survey by the firm TIPP (which has never polled the state before) showed Biden with a 13-point lead. Finally, a poll by the Democratic firm Change Research, published in conjunction with CNBC, showed Biden with just a two-point lead, 47%-45%.

Cahaly’s survey, using the same methodology he employed four years ago but with an enhanced system for targeting likely voters, shows the race in Michigan as extremely competitive. The pollster also continues to see signs of “shy” or “reluctant” Trump voters in the electorate. Known as “social desirability bias,” it refers to the effect of respondents not telling the truth about whom they will vote for because they think their choice will be viewed unfavorably by others, including those conducting the survey. In a phone interview today, Cahaly said the social desirability bias he is seeing is “worse than it was four years ago.” 

Cahaly also pointed out, social desirability notwithstanding, African American support for Trump in the survey registered 11.8%, which would represent a significant increase over four years ago. According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won just 6% of African American voters in Michigan.

The Trafalgar Group survey was conducted June 16-18 with a sample of 1,100 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.95 percentage points.

To view online: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/22/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_michigan_a_dead_heat__143512.html





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