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June 30, 2020: Election Day is 18 weeks from today.
Scott Rasmussen explores where things stand today in his Number of the Day podcast.
Additionally, Ballotpedia provides the most comprehensive coverage available anywhere of federal, state, and local elections, candidates, and issues.
The latest Scott Rasmussen national poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by eight points–47% to 39%. Six percent (6%) would cast their ballot for some other candidate and 7% are undecided.[1]
This is a slight improvement for the president from two weeks ago when he trailed Biden by 12.[2] The week before that, it was Biden by ten.[3]
There are two basic ways to assess these numbers. The first is that the differences are merely statistical noise–this latest survey is two points closer than the ten-point margin and the previous survey was two points higher.
The other approach to consider is that the two previous polls were the biggest leads enjoyed by Biden all year. Prior to that, Biden’s lead has ranged between five and nine points since late March.[4] It may be that Biden enjoyed a modest bounce in the polls as civil rights issues initially emerged and that the bounce has now faded.
The president does better among private-sector workers than government employees. Within the private sector, he does better among the self-employed rather than those who work for someone else.[1]
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