John,
Politics is notoriously hard to predict, but we are making a prediction today: A government shutdown is coming on September 30 at midnight.
No Labels has been clear since our founding that shutdowns are a disaster for the country and should never be used as a bargaining tool. But the current climate in Congress, where trust has all but evaporated, leaves us little hope that lawmakers will reach a funding agreement in time — especially with only 20 working days remaining before the deadline.
To help you understand the state of play, I laid out seven reasons a shutdown is likely in my new op-ed for The Hill. Here are just a few of the warning signs:
Congressional Democrats are still fuming over a Republican rescissions package that clawed back $9 billion in previously approved spending. This has shattered trust between the parties on budgeting.
Republicans are facing internal chaos of their own, with the far-right Freedom Caucus eager to reclaim credibility with their base by forcing deeper spending cuts.
And both parties are already pointing fingers in public, each trying to set the narrative for who to blame if the lights go out.
Meanwhile, the actual work of passing the twelve mandatory appropriations bills is already stalled. Lawmakers are running out of time, and voters are running out of patience.
The cost of a shutdown would be enormous. It would close national parks, slow passport and visa processing, pause food safety inspections, and delay small business support. It would also lower GDP and inject more uncertainty into an economy already shaken by trade disputes, rising deficits, and doubts about the Fed’s independence.
But, as I write, “While all the ingredients are there for a shutdown in October, it doesn’t have to happen. Congress can still step up and do its most fundamental job by funding the government on time. If they don’t, both parties will be responsible, and both parties will pay the price.”
This is why the work of No Labels is so critical. We are supporting the leaders willing to step up, build trust, and forge consensus.
If the government does shut down, the need for leaders of courage will gain more urgency with each passing hour. That courage may not come from congressional leadership, but rather from those members who have the preexisting relationships needed to make progress. This is a moment where our allies can make a difference.
One of those allies is Rep. Don Davis of North Carolina, and today happens to be his birthday! He has been a consistent voice for common sense in Congress, and we would love for you to take a moment to visit his Facebook page and wish him well!
On Thursday, September 4 at 7:00 PM ET, I will be leading a virtual discussion with anyone interested in learning about what is driving the shutdown threat and what to watch for when Congress returns. We hope to see you there.
