Good morning, 

Democrats have not won a statewide contest in Texas since 1994. Yesterday, we asked readers if they thought 2026 would be the Democrats' year. You'll find their predictions below.

This is the Texas Minute for Tuesday, August 26, 2025.

– Michael Quinn Sullivan 

House Approves Stricter Cap on Local Property Tax Increases

• Approval was given yesterday by the Texas House to a measure that tightens the limits on how much local governments can raise property taxes without voter approval. Brandon Waltens has the details.
       

• Under current law, most taxing units can increase property tax collections by up to 3.5 percent annually without triggering a voter-approval election. A proposal that originated in the Senate during this current special session drops that cap to 2.5 percent beginning in 2026. The House voted to lower that to 1 percent, but exempts public safety spending from the calculations.

      
• Local governments affected by natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, or wildfires would be allowed to exceed the limit to cover emergency expenses, while still being required to return to the lower cap once the disaster period ends.
      
• Given the changes made to the original version, the legislation will go back to the Senate for concurrence or the establishment of a conference committee to work out the differences between the chambers' approaches.

RELATED SPECIAL SESSION NEWS

House Republicans Reject Effort to Punish Democrat Quorum Breakers

• A Republican plan to punish Democrat lawmakers who broke quorum earlier this month fractured the House GOP caucus on Monday, with members rejecting the most aggressive measure while advancing two others.
      
• Meeting behind closed doors, the caucus considered three separate proposals. The outcome underscored divisions within the Republican ranks and has sparked fresh criticism of Speaker Dustin Burrows by conservative lawmakers.
     
• One proposal would have censured Democrats who fled the state and immediately imposed penalties: removing chairmanships and vice-chairmanships, docking seniority in the next session, and cutting office budgets for each day absent without leave. Despite receiving support from a majority of the caucus, it failed to get the two-thirds support necessary.
      
• Instead, the Republican caucus endorsed changes to the chamber's rules and state law designed to thwart future quorum busts.

Cruz, Paxton Back Rivals in Heated GOP Primary for Attorney General

• Two major endorsements are shaking up the Republican nomination field in the race to be Texas' next attorney general.
     
• After entering the race last week, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy secured support over the weekend from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz. Yesterday morning, Attorney General Ken Paxton endorsed former DOJ official Aaron Reitz as his successor.
       
• Reitz and Roy have each worked for both Cruz and Paxton. Cruz called Roy a “battle-tested warrior,” while Paxton described Reitz as his “offensive coordinator.”
        
• Both Reitz and Roy once served as chiefs of staff to Cruz, a notable twist in a primary that already includes two other major GOP contenders: State Sens. Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston. While Reitz has been an ardent backer of Paxton, Roy supported the failed impeachment attempt.

Still No Accountability for Prosper ISD Sex Abuse Scandal

• After three years, there has still been no accountability in the Prosper Independent School District for the cover-up of the sexual abuse of two elementary school students by a district employee. As Erin Anderson reports, it took more than three months before parents were informed of the allegations, let alone that their children's bus driver had been arrested and charged.
   
• Several parents and school employees accused the district's superintendent, Holly Ferguson, of intentionally sweeping the scandal under the rug to protect the reputation of the district.
     
• Prosper ISD, which is a defendant in a sex abuse lawsuit, argued this May that the district should also be immune from liability for district employees sexually abusing students on school buses.

RELATED EDUCATION NEWS

• Custer currently holds a valid lifetime teaching certificate that was issued in 1990. While not employed as a teacher or counselor at the time of his arrest, investigators are seeking information from potential unreported victims from Custer’s time as an educator or camp counselor.

Quote-Unquote

"I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat."

– Will Rogers​

Y'All Answered

Late last week, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn's campaign posted to social media the results of a "push poll" conducted by one of the Democrats seeking their party's nomination for the U.S. Senate. The Democrat poll purported to show that Cornyn's GOP challenger, Ken Paxton, would lose in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Colin Allred (who paid for the poll). Democrats have not won statewide since 1994.

Yesterday, we asked readers if they thought a Democrat would win statewide office in Texas in 2026. Just under 13 percent of readers think a Democrat can win statewide in 2026, while 87.1 percent do not.

Here's a sampling of the responses we received from folks after they took the survey.

• “No, Democrats will not win statewide, unless Republicans stay home because they are mad that politics isn't perfect. Politics is about getting everything you can, not everything you want.” – Michael Deffendall
      
• “I just don't see 2026 being the year for a Democrat comeback. The party has zero leadership and no platform to run on. Still, Republicans must not ignore them and keep hitting back.” – Tommy Stephens
      
• “I don't think they *can* win statewide office, as the Republican Party has done everything in its power to ensure the minority is not heard.” – Tess Ailshire
     
• “It is my hope that Democrats make a strong showing in 2026.” – Beverly Randolph
     
• “Here we go with nothing more than the Dems trying their best to pick their opponent or helping a RINO who's sympathetic to them.” – Rick Goncher
      
• “Almost better a Democrat than a turncoat.” – Jennifer Rawson
      
• “The values of Democrats and the policies they espouse are in conflict with the values of the people of Texas.” – Scott Jones
      
• “I’m hoping people are waking up to the dangerous ideologies of the left. Also, with the new redistricting, I’m hoping future elections will reflect the genuine will of the population, keeping our state red.” – Wendy Nylaan
     
• “As usual, establishment Republicans push the narrative that only they can beat a Democrat.” – Merryl Redding
      
• “Absolutely not. Democrats have no credible chance of winning a statewide office next year, and I have several steak dinner bets on the line!” – Shilo Platts
       
• “I believe Democrats are projecting THEIR defeat in next year's midterms. They know people are leaving the Democrat party en masse, thanks to the last four years of Biden/Obama unmasking their true policies, which proved to be too radical for normal people.” – Natalie Miller 
       
• “I don't worry so much about Democrats as I do about Rino John Cornyn winning another term.” – Darell Reichel

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