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Unleash Prosperity Hotline – Weekend Edition
Issue #1334
8/22/2025 – 8/24/2025
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1) Navarro's Arrow
Trump economist Peter Navarro is a lead architect of the Trump tariff strategy, and so he took to social media in recent days to slam UP's Steve Moore on our concerns about tariffs.
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We have tried to be straight shooters on the economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy. When appropriate, we've praised Trump's use of tariff threats to get better trade deals for American farmers and manufacturers and for combatting unfair EU taxes imposed on our dominant tech companies.
But math is math. We described yesterday how coffee bean tariffs have raised the cost of a cup of joe in the morning. Some of the cost is borne by the Brazilian coffee growers and some is passed on to coffee drinkers. Similarly, tariffs on auto parts, aluminum and steel may save some manufacturing jobs, but they hurt more firms than they help and raise the price of buying a new Chevrolet.
Whether these costs exceed the benefits is for voters to decide.
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2) Can the U.S. Break China’s Rare Earth Dominance?
That was the headline question in a recent CNBC analysis of China’s attempt to corner the market on precious metals the U.S. and the world need for technology, electricity, satellites, batteries and AI.
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Today, China produces almost three times the rest of the world combined, and four times the output of the U.S. This has made rare earths a critical bargaining chip in the trade war between the U.S. and China.
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We hear from our spies in the Trump administration that developing rare earths is regarded as a national security high priority - especially at the Interior Department under Sec. Doug Burgum.
We certainly hope so. America has the most minerals of any nation and yet we import vast amounts from abroad. We need to “mine baby mine” and topple the China monopoly.
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3) Bipartisan Coalition Pushes For Gerrymandering Reform In Illinois
Illinois came in for a lot of ridicule when Governor JB Pritzker provided sanctuary to Democratic state legislators who fled Texas to stop passage of a Republican gerrymander. Even left-wing late night TV host Stephen Colbert confronted Pritzker with a map he had signed into law that had the most contorted maps of any in the country.
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A bipartisan coalition in Illinois is now pushing a ballot measure that would take away the drawing of new lines from the state legislature and give it to a commission. A less partisan commission would surely produce a fairer map than the current one which resembles an ameoba and elects 14 Democrats and only three Republicans.
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We'd prefer a solution similar to how neighboring Iowa handles redistricting - it has computers draw the initial lines and doesn't allow where incumbents live to be a factor. But anything would improve the "statist quo" in Illinois, which even Pritzker admits looks like the product of "a kindergarten class."
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4) Socialism In Retreat In Latin America
Is Latin America rejecting socialism? A positive trend appears to be developing.
On Sunday, the ruling left-wing government of Bolivia saw its candidate win just 3% (not a typo) of the vote, as citizens revolted against the economic crisis it created. Inflation there is running at 16% a month and there are shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel in a country that once produced half of its own energy. Doesn’t that always seem to happen with leftist governments?
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Other countries may soon shift to the right. In Chile, analysts give Jose Antonio Kast, who comes from a family that helped shape the country's economic reforms in the 1980s, an 80% chance of replacing the current left-wing government. Gustavo Petro, the anti-Trump president of Colombia, has a 64% disapproval rating with elections scheduled for next May.
Why is there a turn to the right and free market reforms in South America? In part because of the resounding success of Javier Milei in Argentina. His party is expected to win a big thumbs up victory in midterm elections as inflation falls and business conditions have markedly improved. Freedom and prosperity are a winning ticket
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5) Quote of the Day
Zachary Karabell, founder of the Progress Network, notes that the personal attacks on EJ Antoni (including Karabell's own gratuitous swipes) shouldn't deflect from the basic reality that EJ is right that BLS data need an overhaul:
Antoni is not entirely wrong. In fact, he is largely correct, at least insofar as the way that the BLS collects data and the way it tries to gauge the unemployment rate is woefully archaic, increasingly problematic, and long overdue for an overhaul.
It is more than ever the case that we must ask the basic question: "If Trump or his partisans say it, does that mean it's not true?" In the case of the flaws in our macroeconomic data, the answer is unequivocally that our data is flawed, our methods out of date, and the entire question of what we are trying to measure needs to be revisited.
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6) Trump Derangement Syndrome Lives On
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