Welcome to the Monday, June 29, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Oklahomans to decide Medicaid expansion question June 30
2. Looking at the numbers behind this year’s state legislative candidates
3. Michigan voters to decide constitutional amendment on search and seizure of electronic data in November

Oklahomans to decide Medicaid expansion question June 30

Tomorrow, June 30, we’ll be covering statewide elections in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Utah. Voters in Oklahoma will decide a statewide ballot measure: State Question 802. 

The initiative would expand Medicaid in Oklahoma under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It would provide Medicaid coverage for certain low-income adults between 18 and 65 with incomes below 133% of the federal poverty level ($12,490 for individuals and $25,750 for a family of four in 2020). Because the ACA includes a 5% income disregard, this measure would effectively expand Medicaid to those with incomes below 138% of the federal poverty level.

June 24 was the deadline to request an absentee ballot for the June 30 election.

Medicaid is a government program that provides medical insurance to groups of low-income people and individuals with disabilities. The ACA provided for the expansion of Medicaid to cover all individuals earning incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level. In 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in NFIB v. Sebelius that the federal government could not withhold funds from states that refused to expand Medicaid. The ruling had the practical effect of making Medicaid expansion optional for states.

In 2018, the federal government financed 94% of the costs of state Medicaid expansion. For 2020 and subsequent years, the federal government was set to cover 90% of the costs.  

Currently, 14 states have chosen not to expand Medicaid according to the ACA. Of those states, 11 have Republican trifectas and three are under divided government. A trifecta is when one political party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house in a state's government. The states’ statuses are listed below. 

• Alabama (Republican trifecta)

• Florida (Republican trifecta)

• Georgia (Republican trifecta)

• Kansas (Divided government)

• Missouri (Republican trifecta)

• Mississippi (Republican trifecta)

• North Carolina (Divided government)

• Oklahoma (Republican trifecta)

• South Carolina (Republican trifecta)

• South Dakota (Republican trifecta)

• Tennessee (Republican trifecta)

• Texas (Republican trifecta)

• Wisconsin (Divided government)

• Wyoming (Republican trifecta) 

On August 4, Missouri voters will also decide a Medicaid Expansion initiative. The default election date for both the Oklahoma and Missouri initiatives was the November 3 general election. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt (R) and Missouri Governor Mike Parson (R) both opted to put the initiatives on their states' primary election ballots instead. 

Here’s some history behind Medicaid expansion on the ballot in the past few years:

• In November 2018, voters in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and Utah decided ballot initiatives concerning Medicaid expansion and the funding of expanded Medicaid coverage. The measures were approved in all of those states but Montana.

• In January 2018, voters in Oregon approved Measure 101, thereby upholding 2017 legislation to provide funding for the state’s portion of costs for expanded Medicaid coverage through a tax on healthcare insurance and the revenue of certain hospitals. 

• In 2017, voters in Maine approved the first citizen initiative used to implement an optional provision of Obamacare.

Learn more

       

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Looking at the numbers behind this year’s state legislative candidates 

We are excited to release the 10th volume of our annual state legislative competitiveness study later this year. With 35 state filing deadlines that have passed and for which we have full data, here’s an interim update from the data.

So far this year, more incumbents have primary challenges, there are fewer open seats than in 2018, and fewer contested state legislative primaries than in 2018.  

Looking at the 35 states whose filing deadlines have passed gives us an apples-to-apples comparison of 2020 to 2018 data. Here’s what that looks like so far.

This year, 5,100 state legislative seats are up for regular election in the 35 states, compared to 4,833 in 2018. 10,813 major party candidates—5,414 Democrats and 5,399 Republicans—are running in these states, compared to 11,004—5,737 Democrats and 5,267 Republicans—in 2018.

Open seats

Fewer incumbents are retiring in 2020 compared to 2018. This year, 764 major party incumbents (15% of seats up for election) are not running for re-election. In 2018, 929 major party incumbents (19%) did not run for re-election.

Incumbents with primary challenges

More incumbents have primary challenges this year than in 2018. This year, 869 incumbents have at least one primary challenger, with the addition of one independent who ran in a top-two California primary. In 2018, 803 incumbents had at least one challenger, in addition to a Libertarian incumbent who ran in a nonpartisan primary in Nebraska. In 2018, 86% of incumbents in these states won their primaries.

Total primaries

There are fewer contested primaries this year—1,755—versus 2018, when there were 1,857. These totals include all competitive top-two and nonpartisan primaries. On Nov. 3, 1,164 state senate seats and 4,711 state house seats are up for regular election. There is a Republican majority in 52 chambers, a Democratic majority in 33, and a power-sharing agreement in the Alaska House.

Michigan voters to decide constitutional amendment on search and seizure of electronic data in November

In November, Michigan voters will decide a constitutional amendment to require a search warrant to access electronic data or electronic communications. The constitutional amendment would also state that electronic data and communications are secure from unreasonable searches and seizures.

Members of the Michigan House of Representatives voted unanimously to approve the amendment on June 24. The state Senate also voted unanimously on June 11. In Michigan, a constitutional amendment must be passed by a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber.

In 2014, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a warrant is required to search a suspect's cell phone during an arrest. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the opinion in that case, which stated, “Modern cell phones are not just another technological convenience. With all they contain and all they may reveal, they hold for many Americans “the privacies of life." The fact that technology now allows an individual to carry such information in his hand does not make the information any less worthy of the protection for which the Founders fought.” The case did not address other types of electronic data. 

The constitutional amendment is the second to be placed on the 2020 ballot by the Michigan State Legislature. The first amendment—approved in December 2018 by unanimous votes of the House and Senate—would change to how revenue in the state's park-related funds can be spent. No citizen-initiated ballot measures have qualified as of June 25.

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