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Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives Dustin Burrows bangs the gavel Aug. 18 before a reading of the bills as Democratic lawmakers, who left the state to deny Republicans the opportunity to redraw the state's 38 congressional districts, begin returning to the Texas State Capitol. Photo by Sergio Flores/Reuters.

It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

What’s happening with redistricting?
By Lisa Desjardins, @lisadnews
Capitol Hill correspondent

Sometimes news cycles can be summed up by poll numbers; sometimes it’s jobs data ([link removed]) . Right now, we’re in our maps era.

In recent weeks, we’ve pored over maps of Ukraine and Russia, ([link removed]) and considered how tariff wars ([link removed]) ripple across the globe. This week, all eyes are on congressional district maps.

Let’s check in on where things stand with the map battle that could shape the next Congress and what President Donald Trump will face in his last two years in office.

The big picture

Republicans, with a relatively tiny majority in the House of Representatives, understand that the party in power in the White House tends to lose seats in midterm elections. And with Trump’s approval rating declining ([link removed]) , they may need help to stay in power.

This has led to a series of events:
* Texas Republicans are redrawing congressional maps ([link removed]) , attempting to gain five or more red seats in the House.
* In response, California Democrats are also redrawing maps ([link removed]) , hoping to flip at least five seats blue in their state.
* Add to that, a rockfall of other states now are considering ([link removed]) doing the same. For Republicans: Florida, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio. For Democrats: Maryland and New York.

Let’s tackle the biggest two states here: California and Texas. They are very different situations.

California
52 congressional seats
In last election: 43 for Democrats, 9 for Republicans

Can the Legislature redraw maps now? Not without voter approval to override maps put in place by an independent commission. That is what Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democrats are planning: a special election on the issue in the fall. This tees up a potentially costly battle for both parties in an already expensive-to-campaign state.

How many seats could Democrats gain? We asked a pioneer analyst in this area, Sam Wang ([link removed]) of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project and the Electoral Innovation Lab. His initial analysis found that California Democrats can pick up five or six seats with their new proposed map.

Where can you see the changes? We put a map in our segment about this last night ([link removed]) . But you can also see it here, via CNN ([link removed]) .

Texas
38 congressional seats
In the last election: 25 for Republicans, 13 for Democrats

Can the Legislature redraw maps now? Yes. Texas does not have an independent commission and the legislature can redraw maps.

Do Democrats have any way to block the maps? Technically, maybe. Realistically, not likely. Texas Democrats are considering challenging the map in court, possibly on the grounds it violates the Voting Rights Act by diluting power based on race.But, Wang and others point to recent court decisions, includingfrom the Supreme Cour ([link removed]) t ([link removed]) , that have held up GOP maps as an indication that Texas Democrats face long odds.

How many seats could Republicans gain? This is a more difficult question than in California. Texas Republicans are gambling with the new map, diluting some of their own light-red districts in order to create some barely red ones.

But even so, they hope to pick up at least five seats this way.

Wang believes they can get three, because Republicans are basing their push on the idea that voters – including Hispanic voters – will turn out in similar ways to 2024. The data indicates that is far from a given.

“[That’s] both because it's midterm for the incumbent president, and also because of all the things that have been done to Hispanic people over the last six months,” Wang said.

Where does this leave things?

We like giving you clear answers. But there are still too many unusual dynamics and question marks to make a hard prediction.

Primarily, which other states will launch into rare mid-decade redistricting? And also, how politically risky will the Republican maps turn out to be?

That said, T ([link removed]) he New York Times concluded ([link removed]) that a massive redistricting war could benefit Republicans overall.

Our conclusion: Buckle up and be ready for a good deal of small print, including lines on maps.
More on politics from our coverage:
* Watch: Zelenskyy gets promises of long-term U.S. support ([link removed]) in White House talks with Trump
* One Big Question: Would ceding territory to Russia actually bring lasting peace to Ukraine? Experts weigh in ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: How partisan redistricting battles could decide the next Congress ([link removed])
* Perspectives: How D.C. residents feel about crime ([link removed]) and the federal takeover of their city

THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION
By Ali Schmitz, @SchmitzMedia ([link removed])
Politics producer

Two weeks ago, we revisited the origins of the term “gerrymander” — first used in a Boston newspaper in 1812 in reaction to a salamander-shaped district drawn by Gov. Elbridge Gerry.

But two other governors have earned nicknames from redistricting battles over the last two decades.

Our question: Name the governors with their own gerrymandering monikers. For a bonus, what were the nicknames?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: What year did the Home Rule Act go into effect?

The answer: 1973.

Congratulations to our winners: Joan Putney and Gary Gross!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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