Trump’s overall approval is stuck in the low 40s, but the real danger is in the numbers underneath. Among independents, his approval on the economy sits at just 34%, with 55% disapproving — a gap Andrew calls “detrimental to Trump Republicans.” Those margins could be devastating for GOP candidates in competitive districts, who, as Rick puts it, are “caught in a trap” between praising Trump for the base and courting swing voters “who don’t like him, don’t like what he’s doing.”
The erosion is showing up in places where Republicans thought they’d built long-term gains. Hispanic voters who leaned Trump in 2024 are slipping away, threatening gerrymanders in Texas and elsewhere that were drawn on the assumption those margins would hold. “If you’ve got 14% approval from African Americans and 33% from Hispanics, you have not rebuilt a coalition at all,” Rick notes. Add in the political cost of tariffs, inflation pressures, and a “big, beautiful bill” that could shutter hospitals, and the policy map starts to look like a minefield.
Even with Democrats facing their own approval problems, the GOP’s slippage carries more risk because it’s happening inside the core coalition. The Wilsons see signs of quiet but significant movement that could shape 2026 — especially in purple-state Senate contests and governor’s races. With Andrew teasing new Epstein polling and Rick calling Musk “the architect of 2026,” the forces reshaping the midterm landscape are already in motion.
Check out this episode of Behind the Numbers now and let us know what you think in the comments!
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