*Breaking News* New Politico Survey Has Newsom’s Play For Mid-Decade Redistricting of House Lines In Big Trouble

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New Polling Data Released - 64% Support Commissions Work

This morning Politico released new survey data showing California Governor Gavin Newsom’s Redistricting Gambit in trouble. Last week in an in-depth analysis, I said that there were four (and a half) things that could stop Newsom’s partisan plans to redraw California’s Congressional lines mid-decade. The first one I listed was bad polling.

Here’s exactly what I wrote in that section:

As I told the Los Angeles Times yesterday, “Newsom cares a lot more about running for President than he cares about this redistricting play. In fact, I think his big motivation in all of this is to boost his chances of winning the Democratic nomination for President in 2028. Because of this, the bar is very high for Newsom to move forward — he will continue to conduct polling and likely engage focus groups to figure out his most effective messaging with voters, and to test the messages opponents will use to fight back. If he actually moves forward, it will be because he thinks he cannot lose. It’s worth mentioning that if the polling is iffy, that doesn’t mean he won’t still keep pressing the issue publicly to try and get Texas Republicans to stand down.”

Well, today Newsom got a dose of bad news.

Politico’s New Survey Numbers

A Politico–Citrin Center–Possibility Lab survey, released August 14, shows 64 percent of California voters want to keep the independent redistricting commission in place. Only 36 percent want to give the Legislature authority to draw the maps—even temporarily. Among independents, opposition jumps to 72 percent.

These are not small margins. When asked plainly, voters across party lines show a clear default position: they don’t want politicians drawing political maps.

Here’s the exact question Politico asked:

“California voters approved the use of an independent commission to redraw the state’s legislative and congressional districts every 10 years, after the census. A proposal has been made to temporarily give the Legislature authority to redraw The districts for the U.S. House of Representatives before the next census. Do you support or oppose this proposal?”

Where You Want to Start in the Polls

If you’re launching a statewide ballot measure, you want to start well above 50 percent—at least in the high 50s or low 60s—to have a reasonable shot at passing. That’s because support almost always erodes as voters hear more about a measure and as the opposition makes its case.

In a “naked” special election—one where it’s the only item on the ballot—the turnout will be extremely low, and the electorate will skew toward the most motivated voters. That makes a strong starting point even more critical.

Newsom’s starting point doesn’t clear that bar. In fact, it’s not even close.

With Polling, The Devil Is in the Details

One important caveat: this is not necessarily how voters would see the measure on the ballot. In California, when the Legislature puts something on the ballot, it writes the title and the summary—language that will almost always be tilted to help it pass.

Politico’s question might be what a true non-biased question would look like. On the ballot, expect Newsom’s side to frame it in the most favorable way possible. That will nudge numbers upward.

It’s also unclear whether this survey accounted for the kind of ultra-low turnout we’d see in a stand-alone, off-year special election. The voters who show up for that are not the same mix you’d get in a presidential or gubernatorial election

A National Chess Match That California Voters Don’t Seem To Want to Play

This is part of the larger, ongoing national chess match over redistricting. Republican-controlled states like Texas can redraw congressional maps whenever they want. California, by contrast, handed that power to an independent redistricting commission years ago—and according to this polling, most voters here want to keep it that way. At least the “uniformed” voter, before being barraged with a combination of biased information coming from the state via the ballot, and a bunch of political advertising both for and against the Constitutional amendment.

The Week Ahead: Maps… And A Vote?

This battle is at the center of California politics right now. Supposedly, “the maps” of what they might do could drop in the coming days, and the legislature only has a short window to actually try to place something on the ballot. And of course while polling was the first potential hurdle I identified on my analysis last week, there are three and a half other hurdles still ahead…