Washington D.C. (August 12, 2025) - An analysis of the government’s Current Population Survey (CPS) by the Center for Immigration Studies finds an unprecedented decline of 2.2 million in the total foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) between January and July of this year.
We preliminarily estimate that the number of illegal immigrants has fallen by 1.6 million in just the last six months – likely due to increased out-migration in response to stepped-up enforcement. However, CPS-based analysis comes with caveats.
“After growing at a spectacular pace over the previous four years, the foreign-born population has now dropped dramatically in just six months, driven primarily by illegal immigrants heading home,” said Steven Camarota the Center’s Director of Research and lead author of the report.
Findings:
- Analysis of the CPS data shows the total foreign-born population of all ages, both in and out of the labor force, declined an unprecedented 2.2 million from January to July — the largest six-month decline ever within the same year.
- Non-citizens accounted for all of the falloff in the total foreign-born; the naturalized U.S. citizen population has actually increased some since January.
- We preliminarily estimate that the illegal immigrant population declined an astonishing 1.6 million (10 percent) to 14.2 million from January to July of this year.
- Confirmation of the decline in the illegal immigrant population can be seen in the 10 percent decrease in the number of non-citizens from Latin America who indicated they arrived in the U.S. in 1980 or later. It is well-established that this population overlaps significantly with illegal immigrants.
- Based on the CPS, the BLS reports in Table A-7 of the Employment Situation Report that the number of employed foreign-born individuals declined by 1 million from January to July 2025. Table A-7 also shows an increase of 2.5 million workers among the U.S.-born.
- There are a few important caveats. First, given recent stepped-up enforcement efforts, it is possible that the observed decline in the foreign-born was due, at least in part, to a greater reluctance by immigrants to participate in the survey or to identify as foreign-born; 2) Some of the administrative data necessary to estimate illegal immigrants is not yet available, making our estimate for July only preliminary; 3) Given the way the CPS is designed, employment gains among the U.S.-born, at least in part, may represent a statistical artifact rather than a real trend.
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