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Unleash Prosperity Hotline – Weekend Edition
Issue #1324
08/08/2025 – 08/10/2025
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1) Our Visit to the Oval Office
In case you missed it yesterday, our favorite HOTLINE reader President Donald J. Trump invited UP co-founder Stephen Moore to the Oval Office for a little economics tutorial, where we broke the news that Unleash Prosperity has developed an exclusive methodology ([link removed]) for estimating household income many months in advance of the official data release. President Trump was so thrilled with the findings that he called an impromptu press conference in the Oval Office with on-the-spot national coverage.
One key finding: in his first full five months in office this term Trump has already presided over a more than $1,000 increase in real, inflation-adjusted median household income.
You can watch the presentation here:
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The key chart is this one:
We won’t reveal now how we broke the code on this Census data. It’s been a yearlong project. Our margin of error is less than 3%.
One key finding: Under Trump 1.0, real median household income grew by 10 times more ($6,000) than under Biden (less than $500).
The full chart pack seen in the Oval Office is available on the UP website here. ([link removed])
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2) Beware: A Fed Rate Cut Could Backfire
Nearly everyone we know and respect - including, most importantly, the guy in the White House - is desperately seeking a Fed interest rate cut. The idea here is that a Fed funds rate cut will kickstart faster growth and lower borrowing costs for mortgages, etc.
We would favor a small cut in the Federal Funds rate (certainly NOT 200 basis points), but we want to issue a warning flag.
Too many free marketeers and Wall Street traders think all we need to do is have Fed chief Jerome Powell lower the Fed Funds rate (as if he were a wizard behind the curtain) and then we can join hands, strike up the band, and start singing "happy days are here again."
Here's our problem with that logic. First, the market sets the interest rates (remember that old law of supply and demand for credit?) not the Fed. The Fed mostly follows the market interest rates that matter - it doesn't set them.
Second, if a Fed rate cut increases inflationary expectations by pumping excess dollar liquidity into the economy, this could RAISE rather than lower the 30-year mortgage rate. That's what happened after the last round of Fed rate cuts in 2024. See chart. The red line is the Fed funds rate and the Green line is the mortgage rate. Inflationary expectations are the primary driver of long-term interest rates - not Jerome Powell.
Third, the one thing that could torpedo the Trump boom economy would be a resumption of inflation. Polls show that Americans are still angry about high grocery prices. If a rate cut increases prices, that's bad for the country and really bad for the Right.
We just want the Fed to keep the dollar strong and stable.
So our warning is: be careful what you wish for.
We know a lot of our loyal readers will disagree with us, so please tell us why we're wrong!
One last thing: the best way to stimulate the economy, jobs, and higher paychecks - and bring down long-term interest rates - is to CUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING!
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3) More Drugs/Lower Prices
We’ve been busy bees!
Polls show that voters are angry about the price of health insurance, and to a lesser degree prescription drugs specifically.
Our affiliate group, Unleash Prosperity Now, launched a new health care initiative yesterday to push a series of policy reforms that will lower the price of prescription drugs and other health services without scuttling new drug innovation.
This initiative, led by UP Now's Steve Moore, Steve Forbes, Tomas Philipson, and Phil Kerpen was kicked off with a free-market policy blueprint ([link removed]) as well as findings from a new survey of 1,000 likely voters in key battleground states. ([link removed])
The number one winning issue - at a stunning 93% support - is a longtime HOTLINE favorite: price transparency!
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Voters also support programs to cut out drug middlemen and policies to prevent foreign countries from continuing to free-ride off of American drug reach and innovation.
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Check out our project website and let us know what you think:
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4) Trump’s Recount
President Trump has ordered the Commerce Department to begin working on a new mid-decade census, emphasizing that those who are in the country illegally should not be counted in the total.
We favor a recount - but maybe not for the exact reasons Trump does. The main reason for a mid-decade recount is that 2020 was bungled - badly.
There were two problems. In 2022, the Census Bureau admitted ([link removed]) that egregious statistical errors likely shortchanged some states in their federal funding and congressional representation, while other states got more funding and representation than they are entitled to. It appears that at least three extra House seats went to Democrats due to overcounts in states like New York. The census failed to accurately account for people who had fled locked-down blue states during Covid. See map. The orange states had overcounts.
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Florida and Texas had big undercounts. Blue states like Rhode Island and New York kept Congressional seats they should have lost. Remember, there was a lot of chatter about the possibility that the 2024 presidential election could have been decided by one or two electoral votes.
The miscount was even bigger when you consider that the last Census counted between 10 and 20 million illegal non-citizens in many states.
Trump sought to reform the 2020 Census count by attempting to include a citizenship question, but he lost on procedural grounds.
Our guess is that Trump probably can exclude illegals from any mid-decade census because federal law says the Commerce Secretary can determine the form and content of a mid-decade. A mid-decade Census can't be used to re-apportion House seats but can be used for allocating federal funds among states.
So let’s get an accurate count.
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5) Headline of the Week
Our back-to-school special:
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One of our top policy priorities at UP is school choice. The whole point of the school choice movement is to force the public schools to compete with private schools for students. To paraphrase the famous insurance commercial: when schools compete, kids win!
The New York Times is now admitting that’s exactly what’s happening. It means that every child - not just those who choose a private school alternative - will benefit from vouchers, scholarships and Education Savings Accounts.
Now, the public schools and the teacher unions have to sell themselves to the parents. Many aren’t sold. The latest numbers show an estimated 350,000 students received vouchers, according to EdChoice.org ([link removed]) . This year, alternative school choice enrollment will exceed 1 million students for the first time.
Hooray. We’re winning.
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6) Cruel and Unusual Punishment
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