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** No Evidence for Trump’s Claims of ‘Rigged’ Job Numbers
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At 8:30 a.m. on Aug. 1, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment numbers, which showed underwhelming job growth for July – an additional 73,000 jobs – and a downward revision to the prior two months of 258,000 jobs. By 2:09 p.m., President Donald Trump fired the BLS commissioner, announcing it in a Truth Social post.

BLS produces statistical data on employment, wages, inflation and more, and its work has long been viewed as nonpartisan. The government, companies – and yes, journalists – rely on the BLS figures. We cite them constantly in reporting on economic indicators.

Trump justified the firing of the BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, by saying the job numbers were “phony” or “rigged” and that McEntarfer had “faked” other job figures to help Democrats. As FactCheck.org Director Lori Robertson writes, there’s no evidence the commissioner, or others at BLS, manipulated the data, and Trump hasn’t provided any.

Also, the president’s timeline on past BLS announcements supposedly attempting to aid Democrats in the 2024 election is simply wrong.

Lori spoke with Kathy Utgoff, a former BLS commissioner who was appointed by President George W. Bush. Utgoff said that commissioners “can’t rig the numbers. … The commissioner has no ability to change the numbers that come out of computers at the last minute.” About the only thing a commissioner can do is adjust the wording in the press release, and the goal is to “try to be boring” with that language, Utgoff said.

The administration has pointed to revisions that BLS has made to job numbers under McEntarfer’s leadership. But that’s not evidence of any manipulation.

“Revisions are not mistakes, they are improvements,” Utgoff said.

McEntarfer was appointed by former President Joe Biden – but confirmed in a bipartisan 86-8 Senate vote.

Trump claimed that “days before the election” McEntarfer issued “beautiful numbers” to aid Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, and then after the election “on the 15th of November or thereabouts, they had an 8 or 900,000 overstatement, reduction.” That’s not what happened at all.

Instead, days before the election, the BLS jobs announcement showed weak growth in October. And that 800,000 downward revision was announced in late August, well before the election. It was a preliminary estimate and part of a routine annual adjustment by BLS, using more comprehensive data.

At the time, Trump claimed it was a “lie” and that “the Harris/Biden administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating job statistics.” There was no evidence for such claims then, either.

Read our full story for more: “No Evidence for Trump’s Claims of ‘Rigged’ or ‘Phony’ Job Numbers ([link removed]) .”
HOW WE KNOW
In canceling $500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine projects, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falsely claimed mRNA vaccines “fail to protect effectively” against COVID-19 and suggested they are unsafe. The COVID-19 vaccines have been used widely around the world, and studies have repeatedly demonstrated their effectiveness and safety. One study estimated ([link removed]) the vaccines prevented more than 3 million deaths in the U.S. in the first two years alone. Read more: “RFK Jr. Justifies Cuts to mRNA Vaccine Projects With Falsehoods ([link removed]) .”
FEATURED FACTS
The U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland in 2024 was $38.3 billion, while the U.S. services trade surplus with that nation was $29.7 billion, the Office of the United States Trade Representative reported. The overall goods-and-services deficit was about $8.6 billion. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had a $41 billion trade deficit with Switzerland to justify a 39% tariff on Swiss goods. His deficit calculation, however, doesn’t account for the U.S. services trade surplus. Read more: “Trump Exaggerates Trade Deficit with Switzerland by Ignoring Surplus in Services ([link removed]) .”
REPLY ALL
Reader: I’ve been following your quarterly presidential numbers reports since Obama’s presidency, the last one being Biden’s in the fall. I find your analysis to be far superior to anything else I’ve found. I’ve even shared it in my social media several times through the years. When will we receive the first report for Donald Trump’s second term? Please do not stop providing these useful reports.

Staff Writer D'Angelo Gore responds: We're glad you have enjoyed our quarterly reports on statistical measures of how the country has fared under the president. As you mentioned, we started this "numbers" feature during President Barack Obama's tenure, in 2012 ([link removed]) .

We plan to begin "Trump’s Numbers" for his second term starting in January. We wait about a year into a new president’s term before starting our series of quarterly reports. We waited the same amount of time during Trump’s first term ([link removed]) and Biden’s presidency ([link removed]) . We wait that long because it usually takes a bit of time for a president’s policies to start to have an impact.

In October, we will also publish "Biden's Final Numbers." We wait a bit to do those "final" articles, too, because it can take some time for data to be finalized.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* Trump Offers No Evidence for Claim About Bill Clinton and Epstein Island ([link removed])
Former President Bill Clinton flew multiple times on airplanes belonging to the late Jeffrey Epstein. But there is no evidence that Clinton visited the convicted sex offender’s private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands “28 times,” as President Donald Trump has claimed.

Y lo que publicamos en español ([link removed]) (English versions are accessible in each story):
* ¿Los precios han subido o bajado? Analizamos afirmaciones engañosas de Trump y los demócratas ([link removed])
A casi seis meses del segundo mandato del presidente Donald Trump, los republicanos y los demócratas sacan cuentas contradictorias y a menudo engañosas sobre el impacto de la administración Trump en la inflación y los precios. Ambos bandos seleccionan cuidadosamente ejemplos de productos de consumo que respaldan sus afirmaciones, mientras que en ocasiones se atribuyen erróneamente el mérito de la disminución de precios o culpan falsamente al bando contrario por el aumento de los costos.

* Comisionado de la FDA difunde inquietudes infundadas sobre los aceites de semillas en la leche de fórmula para bebés ([link removed])
En los últimos meses, el Dr. Marty Makary, comisionado de la Administración de Alimentos y Medicamentos de EE. UU. (FDA, por sus siglas en inglés), ha amplificado inquietudes infundadas sobre la seguridad de los aceites de semillas, un subconjunto de aceites vegetales utilizados en la leche de fórmula infantil. No hay evidencia de que estas fuentes de grasa sean perjudiciales para los bebés.

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