Top Lines: 2020 Elections | Tariffs and Trade | US Economy | Immigration and the Border | Protecting US Elections | Patriotism & Optimism

Notes On 2020 - The National Political Landscape Is Changing - When Congress returns in a few weeks and Democrats debate again in mid-September, our conversations will be happening in a rapidly changing political landscape. Fears arising from domestic terror and gun violence, a slowing economy and talk of a recession, and an ever more weakened President will make the fall different from even where we left things at the end of the recent Democratic debate.

From a polling standpoint, the President has taken a big hit in the last few weeks, dropping almost 3 points, from 42.8/52.5 (-9.7) on July 30th to 41.5/53.9 (-12.4) today (we use FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregator). All the major polls this month have found the President declining, some by way more than 3 points. What has to be the most alarming to the White House is the President’s precipitous drop on his handling of the economy. The NBC News/WSJ poll released last weekend found Trump's approval rate on the economy falling from +10 in May to +3 now, while the Ipsos poll released yesterday saw a similar decline from +10 in July to +3 now. This represents an especially steep drop from last summer, when NBC News/WSJ had Trump at +16 and Ipsos had him at +18 on his handling of the economy.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Biden continues to have a clear lead. Elizabeth Warren has a lot of energy and momentum now, and the rest of the field is fighting to keep up and stay in the game with her and the VP. The winnowing of the field, in theory, should give some of those in the second tier desperate for exposure renewed chances to shake up the race. These next few debates will really matter.

We believe Congressional Democrats should make the fall about keeping America and its people safe, and offer a big bold agenda which includes gun safety, countering domestic extremism, and protecting our elections at the very least. On the economy it is critical that we explain just how much of a failure the President’s economic policies have been, so as we discuss remedies to a slowing economy we don’t make some of the same huge mistakes he’s made in the last few years. We also have to note that if we do tip into a recession that this will make the third consecutive GOP President to have brought a downturn, reminding us just how dramatically better the Democrats have been in managing the American economy since the global economy was born in 1989.

New Data Highlights That Trump's "Greatest Economy Ever" Wasn't Actually So Great In 2018 - Yesterday, NDN published an in-depth analysis of the economy's performance during 2018, using the great deal of economic data about last year that has been released in recent weeks. Contrary to Trump's claims about a historic year of growth and jobs created by his tax cuts and tariffs, the economy actually performed significantly worse than was initially reported, with GDP growth revised down to 2.5% from 3% and jobs growth revised down by over 500,000 jobs. As a result, economic growth was actually slower in 2018 compared to 2017 (and far below Trump's 3% target) while jobs growth was only barely above 2017's total. Rather than boost the economy, it appears that Trump's two signature policies only succeeded in causing the deficit to skyrocket and bringing the US economy to the brink of recession. You can find the piece here, and read more about NDN's work on the economy and trade here.

GOP Bringing “Moscow Rules” To American Politics, High-Volume Right-Wing Accounts Up To 155 – In a new analysis, Simon finds that the Trump campaign/GOP are already using campaign tactics that feel far more like Russian disinformation than those used in a healthy democracy. From aggressive use of falsified people to the sharing of altered videos, we are seeing the use of illicit campaign tactics at a scale and pace which should be alarming to all Americans. Of course these tactics include the use of high-volume, often clearly fake accounts on Twitter. Our recent effort to build a database of the most influential of these accounts is now up to 155. Feel free to check it out here, and to review our broader set of recommendations about how to protect our democracy and discourse from foreign manipulation here.

ICYMI – NDN has released proposals to protect our elections, reform US immigration laws, and counter Trump’s reckless protectionism. We’ve also proposed creating a new super department we call the Department of Jobs, Skills, and Economic Development to better target our efforts to ensure no one is left behind. We’ve marveled at the dramatic decline of the GOP’s prospects in the heavily Mexican-American part of the US, and just how much better Democrats have been in managing the US economy in a new age of globalization. We are advising Congress to go slow and be smart in how it reforms the Postal Service – reforms are needed but far more is going right than wrong these days.

We’ve also written a great deal about Trump and his contempt for democracy and the liberal order America has imagined and built. We’ve challenged the conventional wisdom to stop downplaying the enormity of the Russian attack on our system, recognize that Trump is more like Maduro than almost any politician in the West, understand the European elections as a direct repudiation of Trumpism/illiberalism, and acknowledge that America First has become an extraordinary governing and political failure.

Recent NDN Media Citations – You can find us in these recent stories: ABC/FiveThirtyEight, AP (here, here), Atlantic, CNN (article, TV), Financial Times, MSNBC, NBC News, New York Times, Politico, Real Clear Politics, San Antonio Express-News, Slate, Telemundo, Time Magazine, USA Today, Washington Monthly, and the Washington Post (here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here). Simon offers extensive remarks about the 2020 Democratic Primary in this new Ron Brownstein Atlantic piece - we think it is well worth your time.

You can also catch Simon in extended interviews on politics and disinformation in this new Future State podcast hosted by Dick Clarke, on Democrats and immigration in this Slate podcast hosted by Univision’s Leon Krauze, and in Fernand Amandi’s new Strange Days podcast on why Democrats need to go big and make their indictment of Trump far more than about “obstruction.”

Support Our Far-Sighted Work Today – We know there are many calls on your giving, but please consider donating to NDN today. Whatever amount - $5, $25, $100 – it all helps us keep the ideas and insights coming.

Best,

Simon, Chris, and the rest of the NDN team



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