The competition between the United States and China is a tense rivalry defined by mutual suspicion. If either nation achieves artificial general intelligence (AGI), then the risk of conflict could increase. On the other hand, the emergence of AGI could also create incentives for risk reduction and cooperation between Washington and Beijing.
In a new paper, RAND researchers consider the high-stakes race to AGI and how the United States and China can avoid miscalculation and misunderstandings that might lead to an unwanted war.
“At least some degree of cooperation is likely to leave both parties better positioned to avoid undesirable outcomes,” the authors write. But U.S.-China collaboration will not emerge organically. Rather, it will require “a deliberate and carefully calibrated diplomatic effort.”
That process should begin right away, the researchers argue. “There is an urgency now to build a foundation for future cooperation where possible, as well as for dialogue to reduce the risk that U.S.-China competition will spill over into an otherwise avoidable conflict that could be extraordinarily damaging.”
Despite being surrounded by smartphones and screens, as many as one-third of U.S. workers lack the fundamental digital skills needed to succeed in the modern labor force. Findings from a recent RAND study suggest that digital literacy programs could help. Teaching people basic computer skills can increase their digital confidence and potentially boost employment rates. “If the United States wants to grow its labor force and an economy that works for everyone,” the authors say, “we can't leave people stranded at the login screen.”
A recent executive order issued by the Trump administration challenges the United States to become the global leader in drones. The order also notes the importance of addressing the misuse of drones by bad actors. This rapidly changing technology may indeed pose risks to the homeland, says RAND's Daniel Gerstein. Imagine, for example, drone swarms targeting large gatherings, drones attacking critical infrastructure, or micro drones accessing a sensitive facility. Given these scenarios and others, leaders at every level of government should focus on preparedness, mitigation, and response.
Researchers explain how prior authorization—which requires health care providers to seek approval from insurers before a treatment or prescription is covered—strains the U.S. health care system.
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