Our statement on Friday's BLS news
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At USAFacts, we rely heavily on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to help Americans understand what’s happening in the economy. The BLS provides crucial metrics on how many people are employed, what they’re earning, and much more.
President Trump ordered the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday. This decision, which came after a lower-than-expected jobs report, has created fears of future politicization of one of the nation’s most critical economic data agencies.
The United States is the global standard for economic data because of the independence granted to statistical agencies. Politicizing that process is a serious departure from that tradition. This administration — and every administration — should protect this independence.
Data about jobs, prices, and wages belong to the American people. Your tax dollars fund this work. You deserve accurate, timely information that’s free from political interference. Undermining trust in official statistics threatens the integrity of the data that millions of everyday Americans depend on to understand our economy.
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Why Social Security funds could run out in the next decade
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The Social Security system brought in more money than it paid out every year from 1982 to 2020. But since then, it’s run on a deficit. The Social Security Administration (SSA) projects that the trust funds supporting the program could be depleted by 2034 unless Congress acts to change it. Let’s dive deep into this issue. |
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How Social Security works
- US workers pay into the trust funds through payroll taxes and employers match these contributions. The SSA estimates that workers contributed $1.3 trillion to the trust funds in 2024. These payroll taxes go into the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance trust funds, which fund Social Security. The funds were worth a combined $2.7 trillion at the end of 2024.
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- The number of Social Security recipients has grown by 266% since 1970. The SSA projects that nearly 69 million people will receive monthly benefits this year. Nearly 90% of people 65 and older were in the program at the end of 2024.
- The 68.5 million recipients in December 2024 included:
- 51.8 million retired workers and their 2.6 million spouses and dependents
- 7.2 million disabled workers and their 1.1 million spouses and dependents
- 5.8 million survivors of eligible deceased family members who had paid Social Security taxes
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- Retirees and dependents received an average monthly benefit of $1,975 in December 2024 for a total of $104.7 billion. The SSA distributed an average of $1,581 to disability recipients and their dependents (totaling $11.9 billion). Survivors received an average of $1,546 (totaling $8.9 billion)
- The trust funds supporting Social Security have run on a deficit since 2021. In 2024, they took in $1.42 trillion and spent $1.48 trillion, depleting the funds by a record $67 billion. Since reaching their peak in 2020, the overall value of the trust funds has decreased by $187 billion, or 6.4%.
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Why are funds shrinking?
- The Social Security model relies on a balance between workers paying into the trust funds and beneficiaries receiving those funds. While Americans are living longer and the baby boomers have entered retirement age, the average birth rate has declined, meaning relatively fewer people are entering the workforce each year.
- The Census Bureau tracks this balance with a broad “dependency ratio,” which is the number of “dependent-age” people (those younger than 15 or older than 65) for every 100 “working-age” people (15 to 64). In 1960, there were 52.0 children and 15.5 elders per 100 working-age people. In 2023, there were 27.5 children and 27.4 elders per 100 working-age people.
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A record number 4.3 million babies were born in 1957. People born that year turned 65 in 2022. Since then, the share of the population that’s 65 and older nearly doubled, from 9.0% to 17.2%. Around 1960, 65-year-olds were expected to live to the age of 79. In 2022, they were expected to live to 84.
The national birth rate has been declining since 1990. Births are not the only way the workforce can grow — nearly 20% of all workers in 2024 were immigrants — but the slowing birth rate has contributed to a shifting US age distribution. The SSA expects the number of Americans 65 and older to grow by 26% in the next 12 years, from about 61 million in 2023 to about 77 million in 2035.
So, is Social Security running out? Track the trends in several more charts at USAFacts and decide for yourself. |
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The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) has announced that it will shut down following the Rescissions Act of 2025, which cut $1.1 billion in CPB funding through fiscal year 2027. CPB provides funding for public media and radio organizations such as PBS and NPR. New tariffs on dozens of countries ranging from 10% to over 40% are set to start on Thursday. Take a deep dive on trade and tariffs with USAFacts Founder Steve Ballmer.
Last Friday, a gunman shot and killed four people at a Montana bar. And on July 28, a gunman killed four people at an office building in Manhattan before killing himself. This article from our archives has governmental definitions on mass shootings. Over 3,000 Boeing workers who build fighter jets are going on strike after failing to reach an agreement on wages and retirement benefits. Are you up for the weekly fact quiz? |
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Medicaid covered nearly 85 million people as of June 2024. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the changes to Medicaid and health insurance outlined in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could lead to 16 million fewer people with insurance by 2034. |
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