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Daily News Brief

August 4, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest pressure on Russia to reach a peace deal, as well as...

  • The firing of a U.S. official over a recent jobs report
  • Diplomatic efforts to release Gaza hostages
  • India-Philippines navy drills
 
 

Top of the Agenda

The Trump administration has moved to reposition nuclear submarines and spoken out against India-Russia ties in its latest efforts to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Trump said he is dispatching Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow this week ahead of a Friday deadline for Russia to agree to a deal. As the United States signals a hardened position against Russia’s war conduct, both Russia and Ukraine have pushed ahead on the battlefield. 

 

Tactical maneuvering. 

  • Trump ordered that two nuclear submarines be repositioned in response to what he said on Friday were “highly provocative” statements by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev on Thursday said the United States should remember Moscow has nuclear strike capabilities. His comment came after Trump threatened last week to impose new financial penalties on Russia and told Medvedev to “watch his words.” 
  • The United States already has nuclear submarines capable of striking Russia, but Trump’s order yielded a reaction: Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that “everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric.”
  • Russia launched heavy missile and drone attacks on Ukraine late last week following Trump’s ultimatum, killing thirty-one people. On Saturday night, Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil depot in the southern city of Sochi.

 

Global economic pressure.

  • Trump advisor Stephen Miller said yesterday that it is “not acceptable” for India to keep funding Russia’s war through buying oil. Trump has threatened penalties on importers of Russian oil as a recent pressure tactic and cited India’s oil trade with Russia as justification for giving it a 25 percent tariff—higher than that for other major U.S. partners.
  • Indian officials have said they hope to negotiate down those duties. But they showed no signs of stopping purchasing Russian oil over the weekend. 
  • Another major buyer of Russian oil is China. Chinese officials over the past week also suggested they would not stop Russian oil purchases.
 
 

“For Trump, tariffs are about more than tackling trade barriers or even reindustrializing the U.S. economy. Trump views tariffs as his single-source solution to bring countries to the negotiating table, or punish them for what he sees as wrongdoing… Combined, Trump’s pivot will increase pressure on Putin to negotiate.”

—CFR President Michael Froman

 

Trade-Offs in Trump’s Trade Policy

Coiled copper wires lie on pallets in the wire plant at Aurubis AG, in Hamburg, Germany, July 16, 2015.

Marcus Brandt/Picture Alliance/Getty Images

Trump’s tariff policies create conundrums that challenge his other stated goals of winning the AI race, reindustrializing the United States, and reducing trade deficits, CFR President Michael Froman writes in The World This Week.

 
 

Across the Globe

Labor statistics controversy. Trump said he plans to name a new commissioner for the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) in the next three to four days after firing Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday. The BLS had just released a downward revision in its calculations for May and June job growth. A former BLS commissioner said McEntarfer’s termination “undermines credibility” and that such revisions are standard; Trump did not provide evidence for his claim that McEntarfer faked the numbers. 

 

Gaza diplomacy. The United States seeks a “shift” in diplomacy, the Trump administration’s Witkoff told hostages’ families on Saturday, saying Washington would not push for “piecemeal” deals but rather simultaneously seek the release of all hostages and an end to the war. Israel and Hamas reiterated their contrasting demands over the weekend, however. Israel seeks Hamas’s disarmament, while Hamas said that it would not disarm until a Palestinian state was established. On Saturday, Hamas released a video of an emaciated hostage, prompting international criticism. 

 

Critical minerals strains. Western defense companies are experiencing price hikes and shortages of some critical minerals due to Chinese restrictions, the Wall Street Journal reported. While Beijing resumed rare earth exports after a June agreement with Washington, it maintained curbs on exports of defense-related critical minerals. The Pentagon has announced grants for some critical minerals production but building up new mines and refining plants can take years.

 

U.S.-Mexico security talks. The two countries are discussing a security deal in which they would increase intelligence sharing, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Friday. The deal is meant to help address drug trafficking—among Trump’s stated reasons for imposing tariffs on Mexico—and pave the way for a trade agreement. It comes after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday the countries were working on an agreement to address fentanyl, migration, and Mexico’s trade deficit.

 

Pacific naval drills. India and the Philippines began their first joint sail and naval drills in the South China Sea yesterday. A top Philippine military official voiced hope that joint drills would continue in the future, noting that Beijing had “shadowed” the exercises. Meanwhile, China and Russia started conducting joint artillery and anti-submarine exercises in the Sea of Japan, which had been scheduled before Trump’s comment on repositioning nuclear submarines. 

 

Oilfield off Brazil coast. Oil and gas company BP announced today that it made its largest discovery in twenty-five years off the coast of southeastern Brazil. Testing is underway to determine the size of reserves. BP updated its business strategy in February to prioritize oil and gas after a previous shift to renewable investments. 

 

Hong Kong restricts activists. Hong Kong cancelled passports and banned providing financial support to more than a dozen activists based abroad. The measures were carried out under a national security law enacted last year. Authorities had previously issued arrest warrants for the activists, prompting international criticism.


Ukraine anti-graft probe. Ukrainian authorities arrested multiple officials as part of an investigation into suspected corruption in drone procurement. Days earlier, Ukraine’s government had restored the independence of the anti-graft agencies that flagged the alleged scheme. The agencies said the accused officials included a lawmaker, regional officials, a military official, and a dronemaker, without naming them. 

 
 

America’s Most Dangerous Dependence

Searching for cobalt inside a mine near Salmon, Idaho, May 2024

Carlos Barria/Reuters

Washington must secure a supply of critical minerals that China doesn’t control, CFR expert Heidi Crebo-Rediker writes for Foreign Affairs.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. begins a five-day state visit to India.
  • Today, Thailand and Cambodia hold talks in Malaysia about their border truce.
  • Today, the Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Africa’s largest upstream oil and gas event, begins in Lagos.
  • Tomorrow, the UN Security Council is expected to hold a special session on hostages in Gaza.
 
 

U.S.-India Relations

President Trump and Prime Minister Modi hold a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, February 13, 2025.

Nathan Howard/Reuters

Since India’s independence, ties with the United States have weathered Cold War–era distrust and estrangement over New Delhi’s nuclear program. In recent years, cooperation has strengthened across a range of economic and political areas, CFR editors write in this timeline.

 
 

Council on Foreign Relations

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