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NEW PEACE PLAN INCREASES PRESSURE ON ISRAEL AND US AS MOMENTUM GROWS
FOR PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD  
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Scott Lucas
July 31, 2025
The Conversation
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_ In theory, the plan, embraced by the EU and the Arab League, could
end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and
begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The
question is whether it has any chance of success. _

Man waving Palestinian flag, Photo by Ahmed Abu Hameeda on Unsplash

 

A new vision for Middle East peace
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emerged this week which proposes the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza
and the West Bank, the disarming and disbanding of Hamas and the
creation of a unified Palestinian state. The plan emerged from a
“high-level conference”
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which assembled representatives of 17 states, the European Union and
the Arab League.

The resulting proposal
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is “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation
of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security
for all”.

Signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan. Europe was represented by France,
Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK. Indonesia was there for
Asia, Senegal for Africa, and Brazil, Canada and Mexico for the
Americas. Neither the US nor Israel were present.

Significantly, it is the first time the Arab states have called for
Hamas to disarm and disband
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But, while condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel of October 7 2023 and
recalling that the taking of hostages is a violation of international
law, the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of
Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians.

It says: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-state solution and
robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional
peace will remain elusive.”

A plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be developed by the Arab
states and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
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Jeddah-based group which aims to be the collective voice of the Muslim
world – supported by an international fund. The details will be
hammered out at a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference, to be
held in Cairo.

It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass
killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation
of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has
any chance of success.

First, there appears to be growing momentum
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to press ahead with recognition of the state of Palestine as part of a
comprehensive peace plan leading to a two-state solution. France, the
UK and, most recently, Canada have announced they would take that step
at the UN general assembly in September. The UK stated that it would
do so unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and the commencement of a
substantive peace process.

These announcements follow those made in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland
and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By the end of
September at least 150 of the UN’s 193 members will recognise
Palestinian statehood. Recognition is largely symbolic without a
ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank. But
it is essential symbolism.

For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia and the US have
said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect
of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed:
recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary
talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March, when it
rejected
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the scheduled move to phase two of the six-week ceasefire negotiated
with the help of the US, and imposed a blockade on aid coming into the
Strip.

The Netanyahu government continues to hold out against the ceasefire.
But its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. The images
of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian
organisations and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of
thousands can no longer be denied.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies,
have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to
recognition. Their efforts at the UN conference in New York this week
are another front of that campaign.

Israel and the Trump administration

But in the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu
government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks
for two states. Notably neither Israel nor the US took part in the
conference.

Trump has criticised
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starvation in Gaza. But his administration has joined Netanyahu in
vitriolic denunciation
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of France and the UK over their intentions to recognise Palestine. And
the US president has warned the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney,
that recognition of Palestinian statehood would threaten Canada’s
trade deal with the US.

In response to Trump’s concern over the images of starving children
and his exhortation “We’ve got to get the kids fed,” Israel has
airdropped a few pallets of aid
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– less than a truck’s worth. Yet this appears more of a public
relations exercise directed at Washington than a genuine attempt to
ease the terrible condition on the Strip.

A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian
organisations have also crossed the border
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but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no
security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.

A sacrifice for a state?

So the conference declaration is not relief for Gaza. Instead, it is
yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation.

After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu government thundered
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“Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy
… A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to
annihilate Israel.”

But while recognising Hamas’s mass killing of October 7 2023, most
governments and their populations do not perceive Israel as attacking
Hamas and its fighters. They see the Netanyahu government and Israeli
military slaying and starving civilians.

Even in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to crush
sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, non-governmental
organisations and the public sphere, opinion is shifting.

In a Gallup poll
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taken in the US and released on July 29, only 32% of respondents
supported Israel’s actions in Gaza – an all-time low – and 60%
opposed them. Netanyahu was viewed unfavourably by 52% and favourably
by only 29%.

Israel has lost its moment of “normalisation”
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with Arab states. Its economic links are strained
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and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only
democracy” is bloodstained beyond recognition.

This will be of no comfort to the people of Gaza facing death. But in
the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the
catalyst to recognise Palestine that disappeared in 1948.

_GET YOUR NEWS FROM ACTUAL EXPERTS, STRAIGHT TO YOUR INBOX. Sign up to
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Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from
politics and business to the arts and sciences._[The Conversation]

Scott Lucas [[link removed]],
Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, _University
College Dublin
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This article is republished from The Conversation
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the original article
[[link removed]].

* Israel
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* Palestine
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* Two-state Solution
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* European Union
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* Arab League
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* Gaza
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* West Bank
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