Mamdanimentum

The Takes Machine™ has been firing on all cylinders since Zohran Mamdani became the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor. But friends don’t let friends do Discourse without some cold-hard data, so we’re here with the IMEU Policy Project to take a look at how New Yorkers really felt about the mayoral election. Call us SidetalkNYC, but for polling. Bing-bong!

We find that among NYC voters for Mamdani in the mayoral primary, the top-cited reasons for voting for him are his plans to lower costs, his plans to tax the wealthy, and his support for Palestinian rights. 

For the 27% of NYC voters overall who report that “U.S. foreign policy and relations with Israel” was an issue that played a role in their vote, over three-quarters think that the U.S. should reduce its support for Israel (78%) rather than increase or maintain it (21%). 
 

Furthermore, a majority of NYC Democratic primary voters support ending weapon transfers to Israel, believe Israel is committing genocide, and support enforcing the ICC arrest warrant against Prime Minister Netanyahu.

While Halalflation may be a specific concern for NYC voters, our results are a lesson for Democrats to spend more time addressing the cost of living in their area and less time defending the state of Israel (which 64% of Democrats think is using starvation as a weapon of war).

Read the full poll here.

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Here are some other highlights from DFP this week:

Person, woman, man, camera, TV...

This summer is hot as hell, but right now, it feels like the only thing melting is our president’s brain. At least that’s how voters are increasingly feeling about our Commander-in-Chief, who apparently didn’t even know what’s in his own “Beautiful Bill” (spoiler alert: it’s Medicaid cuts).

Voters are split, 49% to 48%, over whether Trump is too old to be president. However, the percentage of voters who believe Trump is too old has jumped 10 points over the last year. This includes a 12-point jump among Independents. 
 

Additionally, a growing share of voters either believe Trump is experiencing cognitive decline or are unsure. Since last July, the percentage of voters who think Trump is not experiencing decline has decreased from 55% to 45%, while the percentage who think he is experiencing decline has jumped 7 points. 

As Trump keeps spewing gibberish, we’ll continue to track these numbers.

Read the full poll here.

Deep in the gerrymander of Texas!

Everything is bigger in Texas, and yes, that includes the egos of the state’s Republican leadership. Texas is already known for drawing congressional maps so bizarre they look like the time your nephew scribbled all over your wall — including districts once eloquently described as looking like “Bart Simpson taking a sh*t.”

This year, they’re stepping up their game, somehow squeezing up to five new Republican districts out of a map that looks even more disgusting than John Cornyn’s awful brisket. In our polling, we find that a plurality of voters nationwide oppose Texas redrawing its congressional districts to give Republicans five seats in Congress.
 

Now, Texas has basically kicked off the arms race of partisan gerrymandering, with leaders in California, New York, and Illinois considering redistricting efforts in response. If the Texas legislature redraws its districts, 75% of Democrats want their leaders in other states to draw new districts favorable to Democrats. 

You know what they say — when they go low, we go hi…jacking GOP tactics to stop democracy from getting swept out under our feet. 

Read the full poll here.

DFP In The News

Semafor: Poll: New York Dems side with Mamdani on Israel, Netanyahu

Florida Phoenix: ‘Stay tuned,’ DeSantis says on mid-decade congressional redistricting plan

Politico: A House map battle

The Independent: After Biden and amid ‘worst-case’ famine, the Democratic consensus on Gaza shifts

Forward: Mamdani’s criticism of Israel and support for Palestinians attracted voters, new poll shows

Common Dreams: With 60,000+ Dead, US Public Support for Israel's Annihilation of Gaza Hits New Low

Meme of the Week