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Daily News Brief

August 1, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the White House’s sweeping new tariff orders, as well as...

  • Ukraine’s reversal on corruption watchdogs
  • A U.S. visa ban on Palestinian officials
  • An end to term limits in El Salvador
 
 

Top of the Agenda

U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariff hikes for dozens of countries in his drive to remake the global trading system. The average U.S. rate on global imports will rise to an estimated 15.2 percent if the tariffs are implemented as announced yesterday, up from 13.3 percent in recent weeks; before Trump took office it was 2.3 percent. Markets in several regions weakened following the new announcements. The rates take effect August 7, except Canada’s, which takes effect today.

 

The details. Many of the new rates confirm previous informal announcements, while a few prompted surprise and pushback from foreign officials.

  • Countries with which the United States has a trade surplus will generally face a 10 percent tariff, while countries with which it has a deficit face at least a 15 percent tariff. Goods considered to be transshipped to avoid duties will get an extra 40 percent levy.
  • More than a dozen countries face higher baseline rates, such as Taiwan at 20 percent and Switzerland at 39 percent.
  • Canada and Mexico both face high rates for goods outside of their free trade deal with the United States. But Trump left Mexico’s rate unchanged at 25 percent for the next ninety days after a call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum yesterday, while hiking Canada’s to 35 percent. 
  • Tariffs on goods from China are still being negotiated.

 

Lingering uncertainties. 

  • Officials from Canada, Switzerland, and Taiwan said they would continue to press for adjustments to the new rates.
  • The Trump administration has yet to unveil sectoral tariffs on areas such as pharmaceuticals and chips.
  • A U.S court case challenging Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose duties is moving forward. Trump cited the law in yesterday’s order, writing that goods trade deficits constituted an extraordinary threat.
 
 

“Trump’s new tariff rate lacks rhyme or reason (other than rewarding big countries that made an effort to give him a win)...This isn’t just protectionism, it is bad protectionism—and will have all sorts of unintended consequences. But its actual impact for now depends on the scale of the exclusions.”

—CFR expert Brad W. Setser on X

 

Blanket Tariffs May Slow Reshoring

Workers assemble cars at the newly-renovated Ford Assembly Plant in Chicago on June 24, 2019.

Jim Young/Getty Images

To set up new factories and facilities, companies need steel, aluminum, machinery, and other components, many of which come from abroad, CFR Vice President Shannon O’Neil writes for RealEcon.

 
 

Across the Globe

Anti-corruption in Ukraine. The country’s legislature passed a law yesterday returning autonomy to two anti-corruption bodies. A recent move to strip them of independence had triggered protests and criticism from Kyiv’s international partners. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Russia claimed yesterday it captured the city of Chasiv Yar in Ukraine’s Donetsk region after over a year of fighting; Ukraine said its forces continued fighting there.

 

Sanctions on Palestinian officials. Washington announced visa bans on Palestinian Authority (PA) officials and members of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, saying they were trying to “internationalize [their] conflict with Israel.” The PA said today that recent campaigns against it were in response to recent “significant and successive achievements of Palestinian diplomacy.” This week, several countries—including Canada, France, and the United Kingdom—pledged to recognize Palestinian statehood, while all Arab League countries at a UN conference called for Hamas to disarm and end its rule of Gaza.

 

Iranian agents abroad. The country’s intelligence services are increasingly targeting people overseas that include officials, dissidents, Jewish people, and journalists, according to a joint statement yesterday by fourteen Western countries, including the United States. Earlier this week, the bipartisan U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom issued a report accusing Iran of carrying out attacks on Jewish sites and individuals abroad.

 

End to El Salvador term limits. The country’s legislature voted to change the constitution to allow presidents to run for reelection indefinitely, extend presidential terms from five to six years, and eliminate run-off elections. President Nayib Bukele’s party has a legislative supermajority. Bukele was elected for a second term in 2024 after El Salvador’s top court—which he had previously overhauled—allowed him run again despite a constitutional ban on consecutive reelection. 

 

Deforestation in Colombia. Annual forest destruction rose 43 percent in Colombia in 2024, the government reported yesterday. That’s a reversal from 2023, which saw forest destruction fall 36 percent. Colombia’s government said that drought and fires caused this year’s uptick, while partnerships with Indigenous communities, improved enforcement, and demobilization of armed groups helped achieve progress in 2023. Total deforestation remains on an overall downward trend since 2022. 

 

New Zealand oil reversal. The country’s legislature yesterday lifted a ban on offshore oil and gas drilling, which had been passed under former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The new regulation says that countries can apply for exploration permits off the coast of New Zealand’s North Island starting in September. 

 

Prison sentences in Pakistan. A court sentenced more than one hundred supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan to ten years in prison each. The charges were largely connected to demonstrations against Khan’s arrest in a corruption case in 2023. Khan’s party called the charges against its supporters politically motivated and said it planned to appeal.

 

Crackdown in Macau. Authorities detained a former pro-democracy lawmaker in the first known arrest in the city—a semi-autonomous region of China—under a national security law. Police said that Au Kam San spread false information to incite hatred against the Chinese government. He was known for leading pro-transparency demonstrations and critiquing social inequality.

 
 

Drones and the Future of Warfare

A Ukrainian serviceman launches a combat drone in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 2025

Stringer/Reuters

The Pentagon should learn from the use of drones in both the war in Ukraine and the recent Israel-Iran conflict, CFR’s Michael Horowitz, Georgetown’s Lauren A. Kahn, and Carnegie Mellon’s Joshua A. Schwartz write for Foreign Affairs.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Panama assumes a one-month presidency of the UN Security Council.
  • Today, a mission to the International Space station with a U.S., Japanese, and Russian crew is scheduled to launch from Florida following a weather-related delay. 
  • Tomorrow, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Pakistan.
  • Sunday, OPEC and allied producers hold a monthly meeting.
 
 

Iran’s New Ruling Elite

Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes in Tehran on June 15, 2025.

Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters

The country’s recent military humiliation opens the door for hard-liners to gain influence, CFR expert Ray Takeyh and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Reuel Marc Gerecht write in the Wall Street Journal.

 
 

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