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Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine semiconductor trade and tariffs, colleges’ access to federal student aid, and falling divorce rates.

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1. US Chip Imports
Topline: In 2023, the US imported roughly $40 billion in semiconductors—or 3 percent of world imports. Importantly, AEI’s Chris Miller notes <[link removed]> that this number does not account for the semiconductors entering the US embedded inside devices.


Hidden Chips: The US consumed roughly $156 billion of global semiconductor sales in 2023. Exports made up $68 billion of this and imports another $40 billion, leaving $50 billion of chips “hidden” inside US imports. These chips are housed in cars, medical devices, phones, computers, and aerospace equipment.


Tariff Calculations: Much of the $40 billion of chips imported into the US are made domestically but packaged abroad and reimported. On account of these packaged chips and skewed data, Miller asserts that tariffs on semiconductors risk penalizing domestic manufacturers.







“Finally, for countries—above all China—that have significant trade barriers to US firms . . . imposing tariffs only on imported semiconductors will miss the majority of chips that enter the US inside other devices. As a result, when it comes to made-in-China chips, the US should consider a tariff regime that looks inside devices and imposes tariffs based on the chip content inside.” —Chris Miller
2. Federal Student Aid Access
Topline: Over 1,000 colleges risk losing access to federal student aid as their former students default on loans in record numbers. With student loan payments resumed, AEI’s Preston Cooper warns <[link removed]> that students are not the only ones facing pressure, as colleges’ funding depends on borrowers’ ability to pay.


The CDR: If a college’s percentage of borrowers who default on their loans to attend the institution—also known as the Cohort Default Rate (CDR)—exceeds 30 percent for three consecutive years or 40 percent for one year, the college may lose access to
federal aid. This includes Pell Grants and student loans.


The Numbers: As of May 2025, 1,113 institutions have seen nonrepayment rates over 30 percent, and 400 of those over 40 percent, according to interim data from the US Department of Education. If those 400 schools see these rates hold, the schools may lose access to federal aid as soon as next year.






“During the pandemic-era payment pause, the official CDR was zero—students can’t default if they don’t owe payments. Even before the pause, only a handful of schools failed the CDR every year, making the rule somewhat of an afterthought. But now, loan payments are due again, and nonpayment rates have skyrocketed thanks to the Biden administration’s mismanagement of the transition back into repayment.” —Preston Cooper
3. Return to Marriage
Topline: Divorce rates are lower today than they were in every decade since the 1950s, signaling a rise in marriage stability. With this in mind, AEI’s Brad Wilcox and his coauthors predict <[link removed]> that roughly 40 percent of today’s marriages will end in divorce.


Divorce Peak: Just 15 percent of marriages formed between 2010 and 2012 ended in divorce after 10 years—almost as low as 14 percent in the 1950s. During the peak “divorce revolution” of the 1970s, roughly 30 percent of marriages dissolved after 10 years.


Marriage Instability: According to the authors, the future of 2010 marriages past the 10-year mark also looks brighter than previous decades. This turnaround is partially due to a lower peak marital instability, occurring near the five-year mark, rather than the eight-to-10-year mark of the 1970s.







“Prior to the divorce revolution, less than a third of marriages ended in divorce. But the cultural transformation of the 1960s and 1970s radically changed the stability of American unions. It’s from such marriages, formed during the heyday of hippies through the MTV era, that we get the idea that 50% of marriages end in divorce. And it’s this picture of marriage that has been pressed into the American understanding of the fate of newlyweds.” —Brad Wilcox, Lyman Stone, and Grant Bailey
DIVE INTO MORE DATA
More on Politics and Friendship <[link removed]>
More on Taiwan's Recall Elections <[link removed]>
Special thanks to Isabella Grunspan and Drew Kirkpatrick.

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