Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** July 29, 2025
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A Historic Window of Opportunity in the Middle East
The Middle East is in a period of momentous change. Testifying before a U.S. Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee last week, RAND's Shelly Culbertson described this moment as a strategic opportunity for the United States. With Iran experiencing several significant setbacks in recent months, Washington could move swiftly to "help set a new course for the region."
While recovery is ultimately the responsibility of Middle Eastern countries, she said, it is in U.S. security and economic interests to stand with regional nations in creating a more stable and prosperous future. Positioning the United States as the partner of choice "is not charity," Culbertson said, "it's strategy."
What might this look like? Washington could commit to mediating the ends of active conflicts, take steps to address long-term humanitarian crises, support postwar recovery, encourage improvements in governance and job opportunities, and focus its engagement on priority locations.
The United States has a choice, Culbertson concluded: Treat the Middle East as a region of endless quagmires or help it become a region of opportunity. "We can guide the trajectory of which future unfolds."
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The Future of the U.S. Navy Force Structure
The capabilities of U.S. Navy ships and submarines have improved and expanded over the last several decades. At the same time, the Navy's force structure has become smaller. In a new report, RAND's Bradley Martin examines the mismatch between this force structure and the challenges likely to face the Navy over the next decade. Martin focuses on potential future interactions with China and other adversaries. He emphasizes the importance of creating a force structure with sufficient numbers of ships and the value of uncrewed systems.
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The U.S. Should Plan for an AI-Driven Crisis
There is no way of knowing exactly how AI will evolve or precisely how it will transform national security. But there are many indicators of a coming powerful change, including a fierce race between the United States and China to achieve artificial general intelligence. According to RAND's Matan Chorev and Joel Predd, decisionmakers must prepare for the worst—and start planning now: "In an increasingly competitive and combustible world, ... the United States cannot afford being caught by surprise."
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- It's time to move beyond the myth of the "5 a.m. club," says RAND's Wendy Troxel. Rising early isn't the secret to success and well-being for everyone, because sleep-wake rhythms are deeply rooted in biology.
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** Events
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A Discussion on Recent Trends Among the Unsheltered in Los Angeles
Wednesday July 30, 2025 (Online)
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Policy Lab: Restoring U.S. and Allied Military Power and Influence
Thursday July 31, 2025 (Online)
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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