John, This is urgent: Many of the fastest-growing states projected to gain congressional seats following the 2030 Census are already gerrymandered — and could be gerrymandered further if some Republicans get their way.
That’s why I’m reaching out — below, I’m including key parts of a memo I issued to our top allies in this fight. This is what we’re up against, and it needs all of our attention.
If you don’t have time to read the memo right now but would still like to support the NDRC’s democracy-saving work, please click here: [[link removed]]
NDRC Memo to Interested Parties:
The growth that can be seen in states like Texas and Florida is the result of population growth specifically in diverse, metropolitan, Democratic-leaning urban centers. This trend suggests that the country is not seeing a uniform partisan shift, but instead a geographic redistribution of the population. This means that America is not reddening, blue areas are growing in conservative states.
Although many may look at first glance as though there is a significant shift in population from historically blue states to historically red states, the truth lies deep in the details — America is changing.
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The NDRC’s Latest Apportionment Projections for 2030:
The NDRC projects that nine congressional districts are likely to shift states due to reapportionment following the 2030 Census. Texas and Florida are expected to gain the most congressional districts.
Meanwhile, Arizona, Idaho, Georgia, and Utah are all projected to gain one additional congressional seat per state. California is projected to lose three congressional districts and Illinois is projected to lose two. Meanwhile, New York, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island are all expected to lose one congressional seat per state.
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Left Unchecked, Gerrymandering Could Intensify Due to Population Shifts:
Maps in several of the fastest-growing states already unfairly — and illegally — dilute the people’s voting power, a problem that could worsen over the next decade as population shifts further exacerbate the impact of extreme partisan gerrymandering in these states. Florida and Texas demonstrate this threat.
In Florida, the state enacted a map that dismantled a long-standing Black opportunity district in the northern part of the state. The Secretary of State, the House of Representatives and the State Senate all admitted in legal filings that this map diminishes the voting power of Black Floridians.
In Texas, the congressional map is being challenged in court for violating the Voting Rights Act of 1965. That map increased the number of majority-white districts and reduced the number of districts where people of color can elect the candidate of their choice, despite the fact that 95% of the state’s population growth as reflected in the 2020 Census came from communities of color in the previous decade.
If the status quo remains, these states will likely enact maps that continue to ignore population trends and are drawn to try to lock in political power for Republicans despite those trends, resulting in even more egregious gerrymanders.
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There’s a lot at stake in the months and years ahead. But this work is not far away — it’s happening right now. Threats to the census are real. Efforts to redraw congressional maps to give Republicans unearned power are happening in Texas, Ohio, and beyond.
The NDRC is doing everything we can to elect Democracy Defenders in state-level races across the country who will fight for fair maps and push back against anti-democracy schemes. But unlike the other side, we depend on grassroots donations to power this critical work — make a donation today.
Thanks for everything you do,
— Biz
John Bisognano
President
National Democratic Redistricting Committee
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