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A Troubling Decline for Democrats
The numbers tell a stark story that Democrats cannot afford to ignore. A fresh Wall Street Journal poll, fielded between July 16-20, delivers what can only be described as devastating news for the party. Conducted by the seasoned polling duo of John Anzalone (a Democrat) and Tony Fabrizio (a Republican), the survey reveals that just 33% of voters hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party. In comparison, a crushing 63% view it unfavorably. This represents a net negative of 30 points—the worst showing for Democrats in more than three decades of Journal polling history.
Meanwhile, Republicans find themselves in comparatively better shape. Though hardly beloved, they face unfavorable ratings that exceed favorable ones by merely 11 points. Perhaps more telling is this detail: only 8% of voters view Democrats “very favorably,” while 19% extend that same enthusiasm to Republicans. This gap reveals something more profound than mere preference—it suggests a genuine enthusiasm deficit that should alarm Democratic strategists.
The poll carries significant weight due to its methodical construction. Anzalone and Fabrizio, both craft veterans, reached 1,500 registered voters through landline calls, cellphones, and text-to-online surveys. With a margin of error of +/-2.5 points, these findings represent more than statistical noise. They point to a fundamental erosion of public confidence in the Democratic brand that requires immediate attention.
Republicans Gain Edge on Key Issues
The policy landscape presents an equally challenging picture for Democrats. Voters place greater trust in Republicans regarding the bread-and-butter issues that drive elections: the economy, inflation, tariffs, and immigration. This trust persists even as President Trump maintains decidedly mixed approval ratings—46% approve of his performance while 52% disapprove.
Consider this revealing contradiction: voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation by 11 points, yet they trust congressional Republicans over Democrats by 10 points to tackle the same issue. On immigration, Republicans command a 17-point advantage, which balloons to an overwhelming 24 points when the focus narrows to illegal immigration specifically. Democrats manage to outpace Republicans on two fronts: healthcare and vaccine policy.
The underlying political mathematics have shifted as well. In 2017, Democrats enjoyed a 6-point lead in party identification among voters. Today, Republicans hold a narrow 1-point edge—a remarkable reversal that breaks decades of Democratic advantage in this metric. The financial picture tells an equally sobering tale. The Republican National Committee sits on $80 million in cash, while Democrats struggle with just $15 million. This represents a dramatic fall from 2021, when Democrats possessed four times their current war chest.
So, Does It Matter?
When a major political party finds itself with 33% favorability, the implications extend far beyond polling curiosities. Two years ago, a CNN survey taken in July of 2023 pegged Democratic favorability at 41%—already a decline from the 47% they enjoyed in 2021. This steady downward trajectory suggests something more troubling than temporary setbacks: a widening gulf between the party and ordinary voters, especially on economic matters that directly impact family budgets.
Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who I know from a ballot measure campaign we worked on together, offers a blunt assessment: “Until they reconnect with real voters and working people on who they’re for and their economic message, they’re going to have problems.” His words carry particular weight given his role in conducting this very poll.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats face a complex challenge. History suggests that the party out of power typically gains ground in midterm contests. The Democrats demonstrated this principle in 2018 when they flipped 40 House seats. Yet their current 46%-43% lead in the generic congressional ballot falls short of the commanding 8-point advantage they held in 2017.
Political dynamics have evolved in ways that may not favor traditional patterns. Voter anger tends to drive turnout more effectively than satisfaction, and Democrats risk ceding ground if they fail to rebuild their credibility with skeptical voters. The Republican Party’s superior financial position and improved public standing create additional headwinds that could limit Democratic gains in 2026. More troubling for long-term Democratic prospects, these trends could position Republicans for sustained influence extending into the 2028 election cycle.
Final caveat — this is a snapshot in time, of course. There is long way to go until the mid-term elections. Plenty of time for things to twist and turn again and again. Still, this is unwelcome news for Democrats.
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